Live: dgoodenough.github.io/discgolf
I built this to answer one question all season: who makes the Powerball Cup? It simulates the rest of the 2026 Disc Golf Pro Tour 100,000 times and publishes qualification odds for every player, updated within 15 minutes during events. Points are explained for newcomers at how it works.
I first built a version of this in 2021 as a Jupyter notebook fed by hand-pulled CSVs (preserved in archive/2021). This is the rebuild: PDGA API data, exact points rules, and a site that maintains itself.
- Standings, computed independently. Results come from PDGA live scoring, points from my implementation of the 2026 rules: per-place curves, class multipliers, tie splitting, per-class counting caps, winner invites, the doubles team curve, Jomez bonuses. Totals match StatMando, the official administrator, exactly. A CI check re-verifies that after every weekly refresh and fails loudly if we ever drift.
- A calibrated simulation. Scores are drawn from PDGA ratings. I refit the model against all 6,667 completed 2026 player-rounds: about 6 rating points equal one stroke per round in MPO (7.3 in FPO), with a 4.2-stroke event-level round spread. Fields use real registration lists where they exist and cohort-based participation rates (tour card, European) where they don't. Playoff fields are gated by the standings, as in the real qualification ladder.
- Live events, modeled mid-round. During play, each player's current score is locked in and only their remaining holes are simulated, so odds track the actual tournament instead of resetting to priors.
- A what-if for every player. Expand any row, toggle which events they will attend, and their Cup odds recompute in under 100ms against 25,000 frozen simulation cutlines.
- Its own scorecard. Every meaningful forecast is snapshotted to
predictions/ so the model can be graded (Brier,
calibration) at season's end with
python -m dgpt.evaluate.
pip install -r requirements.txt
cp .env.example .env # PDGA API credentials (developer program)
python -m dgpt.refresh --sims 100000
That rebuilds the schedule, banks any newly finished events, re-runs the
simulation, and regenerates the site data in docs/. GitHub Actions runs it
twice weekly, plus every 15 minutes during live play (a cheap change-check
skips the heavy work between rounds). python -m dgpt.validate diffs the
standings against StatMando; python -m dgpt.calibrate refits the score
model from cached rounds.
- PDGA REST API (schedule, ratings; requires developer credentials) and PDGA live scoring (results, registrations). Event and player data © 2026 PDGA. PDGA Authorized Developer.
- DGPT points structure and playoff qualification
- StatMando for validation only
Styled with Ledger. Inspired by FiveThirtyEight's sports forecasts.
MIT.