fix(analytics): distinguish registered and installed providers

[yaacovcorcos]

What Changed

Provider analytics now reports explicit installed state from canonical provider snapshots. Bundled-but-missing providers report false; installation/removal changes update the state. Multiple configured instances are aggregated per provider driver, and pending probes defer the aggregate observation.

Why

The previous discovery event represented registered providers, including missing runtimes, and omitted the authoritative installed flag. Revision 4 separates installation state from readiness without exposing instance identifiers. Existing consent, activation, notifications, and provider management remain unchanged.

Verification

Desktop analytics package: 34 tests passed. Focused mapper/contract tests after alignment with main: 17 passed. Analytics and server typechecks, server bundle build, formatting, generated gateway parity, and the cross-repository built worker/gateway/ledger pipeline test passed. Full monorepo qualification is left to CI; no UI changes.

Documentation Impact

Documentation impact: Updated — docs/internals/product-analytics.md.

Dependency

Deploy the companion website/gateway revision-4 validator before releasing this desktop producer: ScientFactory/ScientFactory-website#39. Both PRs can merge independently; desktop merging does not publish an application release.

Implementation: Codex assistant. Final delivery review: GPT-6 in Codex desktop.

[github-actions]

Thread transfer impact

✅ Thread transfer remains within every enforced ceiling.

Provider	Metric	Main baseline	This PR	Impact	PR ceiling
Codex	Total thread wire	13.5 KiB	13.6 KiB	+98 B (+0.7%)	15.1 KiB	✅
Codex	Thread snapshot wire	7.1 KiB	7.1 KiB	+8 B (+0.1%)	7.3 KiB	✅
Codex	Live turn WebSocket wire	6.4 KiB	6.5 KiB	+90 B (+1.4%)	7.8 KiB	✅
Codex	Live turn WebSocket decoded	56.2 KiB	57.0 KiB	+822 B (+1.4%)	66.4 KiB	✅
Codex	Live turn messages	8	8	0 (0.0%)	21	✅
Claude	Total thread wire	13.6 KiB	13.6 KiB	−18 B (−0.1%)	15.1 KiB	✅
Claude	Thread snapshot wire	7.1 KiB	7.1 KiB	0 B (0.0%)	7.3 KiB	✅
Claude	Live turn WebSocket wire	6.5 KiB	6.5 KiB	−18 B (−0.3%)	7.8 KiB	✅
Claude	Live turn WebSocket decoded	57.8 KiB	57.8 KiB	0 B (0.0%)	66.4 KiB	✅
Claude	Live turn messages	8	8	0 (0.0%)	21	✅

Baseline: 4322362 · PR result: a076604 · Source CI: success

Scenario and decoded snapshot size

10 historical turns, 5 command tools per turn, 878.9 KiB retained MCP result per historical turn, and a 1.05 MiB retained result in the measured turn.

• Codex decoded thread snapshot: 113.9 KiB
• Claude decoded thread snapshot: 114.6 KiB

Updated in place by a trusted workflow. PR artifacts are strictly validated and never executed.