openspec: element-space-orbital-filtering — equinoctial GVE + coast-gap-honest filtering (proposal + design + specs + tasks) - #147
Conversation
…ign + specs + tasks) The advanced-methods survey's space-accuracy centerpiece, unblocked by the completed propagation tier: Gauss variational equations for the stored direct equinoctial set (perturbing RSW accelerations from the shared force closures, two-body secular term analytic), an equinoctial MotionModel for the UKF/CKF sigma-point machinery with the mean longitude UNWRAPPED in filter state space (the classic element-filter wrap bug made structurally impossible, proven at the wrap boundary), element->ECI-position measurement mapping, cross-formulation equivalence validation against the Cartesian KeplerJ2 path (both directions, LEO/MEO/eccentric — the two formulations share only the force closure), and the falsifiable payoff: a seeded Monte-Carlo coast-gap ANEES sweep where the element filter SHALL stay inside the 95% chi-squared band at gap durations where the Cartesian EKF has left it — the banana-covariance folklore, measured. Explicitly deferred: GEqOE, adaptive GMM splitting (rides on this change), retrograde singularity, tracker consumption, TLE mean-element filtering. openspec validate --all --strict --no-interactive: 49/49. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
OpenSpec change artifacts for
element-space-orbital-filtering— the advanced-methods survey's space-accuracy centerpiece (P2), now fully unblocked by the completed propagation tier.Why
Cartesian ECI covariances go banana-shaped within a fraction of an orbit of coast — the
KeplerJ2EKF's uncertainty turns dishonest exactly when coast prediction matters (gaps, revisit, handover). Equinoctial elements stay near-Gaussian far longer — and with the NEES/ANEES machinery in-tree, that claim gets measured, not cited.What the change specifies
gauss-variational-equations(new): element rates for the stored direct equinoctial set(a, h, k, p, q, λ)under perturbing RSW accelerations from the shared force closures (J2 enters asj2_accelerationalone; two-body is the analytic secular term), sub-stepped RK4 propagation, near-singular domain tests at e ≈ 0 / i ≈ 0, and cross-formulation equivalence against the Cartesian path — both directions, LEO/MEO/eccentric-through-perigee, measured tolerances (the two formulations share only the force closure, so agreement independently validates the transcription)equinoctial-filter-model(new):MotionModelfor UKF/CKF with the mean longitude unwrapped in filter state space — periodicity owned by the conversions, so the classic sigma-point wrap bug is structurally impossible (proven at the wrap boundary and over hundreds of accumulated radians); elements→ECI-position measurement mapping; and the payoff demonstration: a seeded Monte-Carlo coast-gap ANEES sweep in thresh-eval where the element filter SHALL remain χ²-consistent at a recorded gap duration where the Cartesian EKF baseline has exited the band, both filters sharing the same physical process-noise assumption for fairnessKey design decisions
openspec validate --all --strict --no-interactive: 49/49.🤖 Generated with Claude Code