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Monte-Carlo: convergence diagnostics, variance reduction, parallel replications #35

Description

@derrynknife

Availability/MTTF simulations now carry seeds, standard errors and confidence bands. The remaining Monte-Carlo hardening tail:

  • Convergence diagnostics — e.g. stop replications once the CI half-width is below a tolerance.
  • Variance reduction — common random numbers / antithetic variates.
  • Parallel replications across cores.

Estimate

Effort: L (~1–2 weeks) · Value: Med

Three separate sub-features; parallel replications in particular is fiddly given the global-RNG seeding model. The simulator already has seeds, standard errors and Wilson bands, so this is diminishing-returns polish — worth deferring until a user actually hits a simulation that's too slow or too noisy.

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