From 1053cb093dab9c436121eaeac4355813072b0c39 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: buzzahub Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 15:52:40 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] feat: add "What Is Q-Day?" blog post in all locales Draft post explaining Q-Day, CRQC, harvest-now-decrypt-later risk, and post-quantum migration timelines, sourced from the SEO content brief in Notion. Published as draft (published: false) pending review. Also adds the "migration" and "harvest-now-decrypt-later" blog tags to the i18n dictionaries across all locales. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 --- .../assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp | Bin 0 -> 88280 bytes .../blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp | Bin 0 -> 104158 bytes website/public/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp | Bin 0 -> 31954 bytes .../contents/blogs/de-DE/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/en-US/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/es-ES/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/hi-IN/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/id-ID/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/ja-JP/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/ko-KR/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/ru-RU/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ .../contents/blogs/zh-CN/what-is-q-day.mdx | 168 ++++++++++++++++++ website/src/i18n/de-DE.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/en-US.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/es-ES.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/hi-IN.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/id-ID.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/ja-JP.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/ko-KR.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/ru-RU.json | 4 +- website/src/i18n/zh-CN.json | 4 +- 21 files changed, 1539 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) create mode 100644 website/public/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp create mode 100644 website/public/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp create mode 100644 website/public/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/de-DE/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/en-US/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/es-ES/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/hi-IN/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/id-ID/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/ja-JP/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 website/src/contents/blogs/ko-KR/what-is-q-day.mdx create mode 100644 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Bedeutung für die Krypto-Sicherheit" +description: "Q-Day ist der Punkt, ab dem Quantencomputer verbreitete Public-Key-Kryptografie brechen können. Was das für Krypto bedeutet und warum Migration früh beginnt." +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "Was ist Q-Day?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day ist der Zeitpunkt, an dem ein hinreichend leistungsfähiger Quantencomputer die Public-Key-Kryptografie realer Systeme schnell genug brechen kann, um Sicherheitsausfälle wie gefälschte Transaktionen oder offengelegte Daten zu verursachen. + +RSA und elliptische-Kurven-Kryptografie werden weit verbreitet für Schlüsselaustausch und digitale Signaturen eingesetzt. + +Für Blockchains hängt das Risiko von Quantenfähigkeit, Public-Key-Exposition und Migration ab. Das folgende Framework erklärt, wie diese Bedingungen in einem praktischen Angriff zusammenwirken. + +## Wann ist Q-Day? + +Niemand kann Q-Day ein glaubwürdiges Datum geben. Forscher müssen noch schwierige Probleme in Quantenhardware, Fehlerkorrektur und groß angelegter Berechnung lösen. + +Expertenprognosen spiegeln diese Unsicherheit wider. Die [2025er-Umfrage des Global Risk Institute](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/) ergab, dass ein kryptografisch relevanter Quantencomputer (CRQC) innerhalb von zehn Jahren durchaus möglich und innerhalb von fünfzehn Jahren wahrscheinlich ist. Diese Wahrscheinlichkeitsbereiche deuten auf die 2030er-Jahre hin, ohne ein bestimmtes Jahr zu benennen. + +Google kündigte ein Ziel für 2029 an, um die eigene Post-Quanten-Kryptografie-Migration abzuschließen. Damit wurde nicht vorhergesagt, wann ein CRQC eintrifft. Das Ziel spiegelt die für die Migration benötigte Zeit wider sowie die Möglichkeit, dass kryptoanalytische Fortschritte frühere Ressourcenschätzungen verringern könnten. [Google kündigte den Migrationszeitplan im März 2026 an](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). + +Langlebige vertrauliche Daten müssen vor Q-Day geschützt werden. + +Bei einem Harvest-now-decrypt-later-Angriff sammelt ein Angreifer heute verschlüsselte Informationen und speichert sie, bis ein zukünftiger Quantencomputer sie entschlüsseln kann. Daten, die über viele Jahre vertraulich bleiben müssen, sind durch diese Strategie bereits gefährdet. + +![Harvest-now, decrypt-later: Ein Angreifer sammelt heute verschlüsselte Daten und entschlüsselt sie, sobald ein künftiger Quantencomputer die Verschlüsselung brechen kann](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +Harvest-now-decrypt-later betrifft vor allem verschlüsselte Daten. Manche öffentlichen Blockchains sind einem verwandten Risiko ausgesetzt: Onchain offengelegte Public Keys bleiben für künftige Angriffe verfügbar, auch wenn die Ableitung eines Private Keys weiterhin einen CRQC erfordert. + +## Q-Day erfordert einen kryptografisch relevanten Quantencomputer + +Ein kryptografisch relevanter Quantencomputer, kurz CRQC, ist ein Quantencomputer, der leistungsfähig und zuverlässig genug ist, um in realen Systemen genutzte Kryptografie zu brechen. + +Forscher bewerten diese Fähigkeit anhand mehrerer Messgrößen. Dazu zählen die Anzahl zuverlässiger logischer Qubits, der Fehlerkorrektur-Overhead, die Anzahl benötigter Quantenoperationen und die für den Angriff verfügbare Zeit. + +Heutige Quantenprozessoren können klassische Computer bei sorgfältig ausgewählten Experimenten übertreffen. Ihnen fehlen jedoch weiterhin die Skalierung und Fehlertoleranz, die nötig sind, um mit Shors Algorithmus einen privaten Blockchain-Schlüssel wiederherzustellen. + +Googles 2026er-Paper schätzt die Ressourcen, die ein künftiger supraleitender CRQC benötigen könnte, um ECDLP-256 auf secp256k1 zu lösen — der elliptischen Kurve, die Bitcoin und viele andere Chains verwenden. Unter den genannten Hardware-Annahmen schätzt das Paper weniger als 500.000 physische Qubits und eine Laufzeit von Minuten für einen Angriff. [Googles Forschung erläutert diese Annahmen und Ressourcenschätzungen](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/). + +Die Schätzung beschreibt eine zukünftige Maschine. Sie zeigt, dass Fortschritte bei Algorithmen und Fehlerkorrektur Ressourcenschätzungen verändern können, bevor die Hardware die erforderliche Skalierung erreicht. + +## Was würde Q-Day bedrohen? + +Die zentrale Q-Day-Sorge für Blockchains ist Shors Algorithmus. Ein hinreichend leistungsfähiger Quantencomputer könnte ihn nutzen, um die mathematischen Probleme zu lösen, die RSA und Systeme mit elliptischen Kurven schützen. [NIST identifiziert RSA, DSA und Kryptografie mit elliptischen Kurven als gefährdete Klassen](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals). + +Public-Key-Kryptografie erfüllt zwei Hauptaufgaben: + +1. Sie hilft zwei Parteien, über ein nicht vertrauenswürdiges Netzwerk ein gemeinsames Geheimnis zu etablieren. +2. Sie erlaubt es dem Inhaber eines privaten Schlüssels, eine digitale Signatur zu erzeugen, die die Autorisierung nachweist. + +Blockchains sind stark auf digitale Signaturen angewiesen. Bitcoin verwendet ECDSA für ältere Ausgabepfade und Schnorr-Signaturen für Taproot. Andere Chains treffen eigene Entscheidungen zwischen Signaturverfahren mit elliptischen Kurven, darunter ECDSA und EdDSA. Kann ein Angreifer aus einem offengelegten Public Key einen privaten Schlüssel ableiten, kann er eine Signatur erzeugen, die das Netzwerk möglicherweise als gültig akzeptiert. + +| Kryptografische Funktion | Häufige Beispiele | Quanteneffekt | Praktische Auswirkung | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Schlüsseletablierung und Public-Key-Verschlüsselung | RSA, ECDH | Shors Algorithmus bedroht die zugrunde liegenden mathematischen Probleme | Zuvor abgefangene verschlüsselte Datensätze könnten lesbar werden | +| Digitale Signaturen | RSA-Signaturen, ECDSA, EdDSA | Shors Algorithmus könnte die Wiederherstellung privater Schlüssel ermöglichen | Ein Angreifer könnte Transaktionen oder andere Autorisierungen fälschen | +| Symmetrische Verschlüsselung | AES | Grovers Algorithmus senkt die Kosten für Brute-Force-Suche | Schlüssellänge und praktische Angriffskosten bestimmen die verbleibende Sicherheitsmarge | +| Hashing | SHA-256, SHA-3 | Quantensuche verringert manche Sicherheitsmargen | Hash-abhängige Funktionen erfordern eine gesonderte Bewertung | + +Bitcoins digitale Signaturen und SHA-256 sind daher unterschiedlichen Quantenbedrohungen ausgesetzt. + +ECDSA autorisiert Ausgaben. Ein erfolgreicher Shor-Angriff könnte aus dem Public Key den privaten Schlüssel wiederherstellen und gefälschte Transaktionen ermöglichen. + +SHA-256 unterstützt Mining und andere hash-abhängige Funktionen. Die relevante Quantenbedrohung ist [Grovers Algorithmus](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking), der eine generische Beschleunigung für die Suche bietet. Das eröffnet einem Angreifer nicht denselben direkten Weg zur Wiederherstellung privater Schlüssel. [NISTs Post-Quanten-Leitfaden](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs) behandelt die beiden Angriffsmodelle getrennt. + +## Wie aus Quantenfähigkeit ein Blockchain-Angriff wird + +![Quantenfähigkeit, Public-Key-Exposition und unvollständige Migration ergeben zusammen ein praktisches Quantenrisiko](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +Eine Blockchain wird angreifbar, wenn ein leistungsfähiger Quantencomputer einen offengelegten Public Key ausnutzen kann, bevor eine Post-Quanten-Migration die betroffenen Assets schützt. + +### Die Maschine kann den Angriff vollenden + +Der Angreifer benötigt genug zuverlässige Quantenkapazität, um innerhalb der für das Ziel verfügbaren Zeit einen privaten Schlüssel abzuleiten. + +Die verfügbare Zeit hängt vom Ziel ab. Ein über Jahre onchain sichtbarer Public Key gibt einem Angreifer deutlich mehr Zeit zur Ableitung des zugehörigen privaten Schlüssels als ein Schlüssel, der erst zwischen Broadcast und Bestätigung einer Transaktion offengelegt wird. + +### Der Public Key ist verfügbar + +Ein Quantencomputer kann ohne den zugehörigen Public Key keinen privaten Schlüssel ableiten. + +Manche Bitcoin-Outputs speichern den Public Key direkt. Andere speichern zunächst nur einen Hash des Public Keys und legen den vollständigen Schlüssel erst bei der Ausgabe offen. Die Wiederverwendung einer Adresse kann neue Gelder mit einem bereits offengelegten Schlüssel schützen lassen. + +Googles Analyse von 2026 schätzt, dass Adressen mit offengelegten oder wiederverwendeten Public Keys rund 6,7 Millionen BTC halten, die einem künftigen CRQC einem Angriff auf ruhende Bestände ausgesetzt sein könnten. + +Etwa 2,3 Millionen BTC in der Analyse waren seit mindestens fünf Jahren inaktiv, während rund 1,7 Millionen BTC in frühen Pay-to-Public-Key-Outputs gebunden sind. [Googles Paper](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf) erläutert die Annahmen und die Methode hinter diesen Schätzungen. + +Diese Bestände werden angreifbar, sobald ein CRQC die zugehörigen privaten Schlüssel ableiten kann. Inhaber, die noch die Kontrolle über ihre Schlüssel haben, können ihre Gelder migrieren, sobald die Chain einen Post-Quanten-Ausgabeweg bereitgestellt hat und unterstützende Wallets und Dienste ihn übernommen haben. Verlorene oder aufgegebene Schlüssel schaffen ein schwierigeres Problem, weil möglicherweise niemand verfügbar ist, um die Migration zu autorisieren. + +[Bitcoins Migrationsproblem ist auch ein Koordinationsproblem](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization), da kein zentraler Betreiber sicherstellen kann, dass jeder Inhaber, jede Wallet, jede Börse, jeder Verwahrer und jeder Node-Betreiber upgradet. + +### Die Migration bleibt unvollständig + +Ein Post-Quanten-Signaturverfahren zu einem Protokoll hinzuzufügen, ist nur ein Teil der Migration. Nodes müssen die neuen Regeln durchsetzen, Wallets müssen neue Schlüssel erzeugen und verwalten, und Börsen sowie Verwahrer müssen das neue Transaktionsformat unterstützen. + +Bestehende Assets bleiben verwundbar, bis Nutzer sie über einen aktivierten, unterstützten Post-Quanten-Pfad bewegen können. Ein Vorschlag, ein Forschungspapier, ein Testnetz oder ein optionales Mainnet-Feature zeigt Fortschritt; es schützt jedoch nicht Assets, die durch verwundbare Schlüssel kontrolliert werden. + +## Warum die Migration Jahre vor Q-Day beginnt + +NIST hat im August 2024 seine ersten drei Post-Quanten-Standards finalisiert: + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) spezifiziert ML-KEM, ein gitterbasiertes Verfahren zur Etablierung gemeinsamer Schlüssel. +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) spezifiziert ML-DSA, ein gitterbasiertes Signaturverfahren. +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) spezifiziert SLH-DSA, ein hashbasiertes Signaturverfahren. + +Die gitterbasierten Standards bieten effiziente Hauptoptionen für Schlüsseletablierung und Signaturen. Der hashbasierte Standard gibt Implementierern eine Signaturoption auf Basis anderer mathematischer Annahmen. + +Wir haben Q-Day, die Post-Quanten-Migration und den Druck, verwundbare Kryptografie zu aktualisieren, mit Alex Pruden im QDay Podcast besprochen. + + + +Die Auswahl eines Algorithmus stößt eine Migration an. Bei gewöhnlicher Software erreicht eine neue kryptografische Bibliothek Nutzer oft über ein reguläres Update, doch der Anbieter muss trotzdem Protokolle, Zertifikate, Hardware-Unterstützung und abhängige Dienste ändern. + +NIST weist darauf hin, dass die Integration eines standardisierten kryptografischen Algorithmus in Informationssysteme [historisch 10 bis 20 Jahre gedauert hat](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography). + +## Was Regierungen und Standardisierungsgremien unternehmen + +Regierungen behandeln die Post-Quanten-Migration bereits als mehrjähriges Sicherheitsprogramm. + +| Organisation | Laufende Vorbereitung | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) hat 2024 seine ersten PQC-Standards finalisiert und plant, quantenverwundbare Algorithmen bis 2035 aus seinen Standards zu entfernen, wobei Hochrisikosysteme früher umsteigen | +| US-Bundesregierung | [Executive Order 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/) und [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) verlangen von erfassten hochwertigen und hochwirksamen Systemen PQC für die Schlüsseletablierung bis zum 31. Dezember 2030 und für digitale Signaturen bis zum 31. Dezember 2031 | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) benennt quantenresistente Algorithmen und legt einen gestuften Übergang für National Security Systems fest | +| Europäische Union | Die [EU-Roadmap 2025](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) fordert einen koordinierten Übergang über die Mitgliedstaaten hinweg | +| ENISA | [ENISAs Integrationsstudie](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) befasst sich mit der Integration von Post-Quanten-Systemen in bestehende Protokolle | + +Diese Programme beginnen Jahre vor jedem bestätigten CRQC, weil zunächst jeder verwundbare Algorithmus gefunden, ersetzt, getestet und ausgemustert werden muss. + +## Wie man Quantenreife in einer Blockchain bewertet + +Ein glaubwürdiger [Migrationsplan](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union) verbindet die aktuell genutzte Kryptografie mit den Menschen und Systemen, die deren Ersatz übernehmen müssen. + +Fünf Prüfungen machen diese Bewertung praktisch umsetzbar. + +1. **Die genutzte Kryptografie identifizieren.** Ermitteln, welche Signaturverfahren, Schlüsseletablierungsmethoden, Hashes, Beweissysteme und kryptografischen Bibliotheken die Chain heute schützen. +2. **Public-Key-Exposition kartieren.** Feststellen, wann Schlüssel sichtbar werden, ob sie wiederverwendet werden, wie lange das Angriffsfenster offen bleibt und welche Assets oder Berechtigungen sie kontrollieren. +3. **Überprüfen, was tatsächlich ausgerollt wurde.** Veröffentlichte Forschung, Vorschläge, Testnetze, optionale Mainnet-Features und verpflichtenden Mainnet-Schutz voneinander trennen. +4. **Den Migrationspfad nachvollziehen.** Prüfen, wie Nodes, Wallets, Börsen, Verwahrer, Bridges und Nutzer den Ersatz übernehmen werden. Der Plan sollte auch erklären, was mit inaktiven oder unzugänglichen Beständen geschieht. +5. **Die Belege prüfen.** Nach Spezifikationen, Implementierungscode, unabhängigen Audits, Performance-Tests und klaren Nutzeranleitungen suchen. Post-Quanten-Signaturen müssen im gesamten Umfeld unter realistischen Bedingungen funktionieren. + +Um eine Quantenresistenz-Behauptung zu bewerten: die noch genutzte Kryptografie identifizieren, überprüfen, dass ein Post-Quanten-Pfad aktiv ist, und bestätigen, dass bestehende Konten und Assets ihn nutzen können. + +## Prüfen Sie das Quantenrisiko Ihrer Ethereum-Wallet + +Externally Owned Accounts bei Ethereum haben ein anderes Expositionsmuster als Bitcoin-Outputs, weil ein Public Key aus einer veröffentlichten Transaktionssignatur wiederhergestellt werden kann. + +Ethereum verfügt zudem über [Konsens-Signaturen, Data-Availability-Commitments und Beweissysteme](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure), die einen eigenen Post-Quanten-Migrationspfad benötigen. + +Der [Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) nutzt öffentliche Blockchain-Daten, um Public-Key-Exposition und Guthaben-Sensitivität für eine Ethereum-Adresse oder einen ENS-Namen zu bewerten. Private Keys werden dabei nie angefragt. diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/en-US/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/en-US/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..eb7ee570 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/en-US/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "What Is Q-Day?" +metaTitle: "What Is Q-Day? What It Means for Crypto Security" +description: "Q-Day is the threshold when quantum computers can break widely used public-key cryptography. Learn what it threatens in crypto and why migration starts early." +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "What Is Q-Day?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day is the point when a sufficiently capable quantum computer can break the public-key cryptography protecting real systems quickly enough to cause security failures such as forged transactions or exposed data. + +RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography are widely used for key exchange and digital signatures. + +For blockchains, risk depends on quantum capability, public-key exposure, and migration. The framework below explains how those conditions combine in a practical attack. + +## When Is Q-Day? + +No one can give Q-Day a credible date. Researchers still need to solve difficult problems in quantum hardware, error correction, and large-scale computation. + +Expert forecasts reflect that uncertainty. The [Global Risk Institute's 2025 survey](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/) found that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) is quite possible within ten years and likely within fifteen years. These probability ranges point towards the 2030s without identifying a particular year. + +Google announced a 2029 target for completing its own post-quantum cryptography migration. It did not predict when a CRQC will arrive. The target reflects the time required for migration and the possibility that cryptanalytic advances could reduce earlier resource estimates. [Google announced the migration timeline in March 2026](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). + +Long-lived confidential data needs protection before Q-Day. + +In a harvest-now, decrypt-later attack, an adversary collects encrypted information today and stores it until a future quantum computer can decrypt it. Data that must remain confidential for many years is already at risk from this strategy. + +![Harvest-now, decrypt-later: an adversary collects encrypted data today and decrypts it once a future quantum computer can break the encryption](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +Harvest-now, decrypt-later applies most directly to encrypted data. Some public blockchains face a related risk: public keys exposed onchain remain available for future attack, even though deriving a private key still requires a CRQC. + +## Q-Day Requires a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer + +A cryptographically relevant quantum computer, or CRQC, is a quantum computer powerful and reliable enough to break cryptography used in real systems. + +Researchers assess that capability using several measurements. These include the number of reliable logical qubits, the error-correction overhead, the number of quantum operations required, and the time available to complete the attack. + +Today's quantum processors can outperform classical computers on carefully selected experiments. They still lack the scale and fault tolerance required to recover a blockchain private key using Shor's algorithm. + +Google's 2026 paper estimates the resources a future superconducting CRQC could need to solve ECDLP-256 on secp256k1, the elliptic curve used by Bitcoin and many other chains. Under its stated hardware assumptions, the paper estimates fewer than 500,000 physical qubits and a runtime of minutes for one attack. [Google's research explains those assumptions and resource estimates](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/). + +The estimate describes a future machine. It shows that advances in algorithms and error correction can change resource estimates before hardware reaches the required scale. + +## What Would Q-Day Threaten? + +The main Q-Day concern for blockchains is Shor's algorithm. A sufficiently capable quantum computer could use it to solve the mathematical problems protecting RSA and elliptic-curve systems. [NIST identifies RSA, DSA, and elliptic-curve cryptography as vulnerable classes](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals). + +Public-key cryptography has two main jobs: + +1. It helps two parties establish a shared secret across an untrusted network. +2. It allows a private-key holder to produce a digital signature that proves authorization. + +Blockchains depend heavily on digital signatures. Bitcoin uses ECDSA for older spending paths and Schnorr signatures for Taproot. Other chains make their own choices among elliptic-curve signature schemes, including ECDSA and EdDSA. If an attacker can derive a private key from an exposed public key, they can produce a signature that the network may accept as valid. + +| Cryptographic function | Common examples | Quantum effect | Practical implication | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Key establishment and public-key encryption | RSA, ECDH | Shor's algorithm threatens the underlying mathematical problems | Previously captured encrypted records may become readable | +| Digital signatures | RSA signatures, ECDSA, EdDSA | Shor's algorithm could enable private-key recovery | An attacker may be able to forge transactions or other authorizations | +| Symmetric encryption | AES | Grover's algorithm reduces the cost of brute-force search | Key size and practical attack costs determine the remaining security margin | +| Hashing | SHA-256, SHA-3 | Quantum search reduces some security margins | Hash-dependent functions require a separate assessment | + +Bitcoin's digital signatures and SHA-256 therefore face different quantum threats. + +ECDSA authorizes spending. A successful Shor attack could recover a private key from its public key and enable forged transactions. + +SHA-256 supports mining and other hash-dependent functions. Its relevant quantum threat is [Grover's algorithm](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking), which provides a generic speedup for search. This does not give an attacker the same direct private-key recovery path. [NIST's post-quantum guidance](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs) treats the two attack models separately. + +## How Quantum Capability Becomes a Blockchain Attack + +![Quantum capability, public-key exposure, and incomplete migration combine into practical quantum risk](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +A blockchain becomes vulnerable when a capable quantum computer can exploit an exposed public key before a post-quantum migration protects the relevant assets. + +### The Machine Can Complete the Attack + +The attacker needs enough reliable quantum capacity to derive a private key within the time available for the target. + +The available time depends on the target. A public key visible onchain for years gives an attacker much longer to derive the corresponding private key than a key revealed after a transaction is broadcast and before it is confirmed. + +### The Public Key Is Available + +A quantum computer cannot derive a private key without the corresponding public key. + +Some Bitcoin outputs record the public key directly. Others initially store a hash of the public key and reveal the full key when the holder spends. Reusing an address can leave new funds protected by a key that has already been exposed. + +Google's 2026 analysis estimates that addresses with exposed or reused public keys hold approximately 6.7 million BTC that could face an at-rest attack from a future CRQC. + +About 2.3 million BTC in the analysis had been inactive for at least five years, while roughly 1.7 million BTC are locked in early pay-to-public-key outputs. [Google's paper](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf) explains the assumptions and method behind these estimates. + +These balances become attackable when a CRQC can derive the corresponding private keys. Owners who still control their keys may be able to migrate their funds once the chain has deployed a post-quantum spending route and supporting wallets and services have adopted it. Lost or abandoned keys create a harder problem because nobody may be available to authorize the migration. + +[Bitcoin's migration problem is also a coordination problem](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization), because no central operator can ensure every holder, wallet, exchange, custodian, and node operator upgrades. + +### Migration Remains Incomplete + +Adding a post-quantum signature scheme to a protocol is one part of migration. Nodes must enforce the new rules, wallets must create and manage new keys, and exchanges and custodians must support the new transaction format. + +Existing assets remain vulnerable until users can move them through an activated, supported post-quantum path. A proposal, research paper, testnet, or optional mainnet feature shows progress; it does not protect assets controlled by vulnerable keys. + +## Why Migration Begins Years Before Q-Day + +NIST finalized its first three post-quantum standards in August 2024: + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) specifies ML-KEM, a lattice-based method for establishing shared keys. +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) specifies ML-DSA, a lattice-based digital-signature scheme. +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) specifies SLH-DSA, a hash-based digital-signature scheme. + +The lattice-based standards provide efficient primary options for key establishment and signatures. The hash-based standard gives implementers a signature option built on different mathematical assumptions. + +We discussed Q-Day, post-quantum migration, and the pressure to upgrade vulnerable cryptography with Alex Pruden on the QDay Podcast. + + + +Selecting an algorithm starts a migration. In ordinary software, a new cryptographic library may reach users through a routine update, but the vendor still has to change protocols, certificates, hardware support, and dependent services. + +NIST notes that integrating a standardized cryptographic algorithm across information systems has [historically taken 10 to 20 years](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography). + +## What Governments and Standards Bodies Are Doing + +Governments are already treating post-quantum migration as a multi-year security program. + +| Organization | Preparation underway | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) finalized its first PQC standards in 2024 and plans to remove quantum-vulnerable algorithms from its standards by 2035, with high-risk systems moving earlier | +| United States federal government | [Executive Order 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/) and [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) require covered high-value and high-impact systems to use PQC for key establishment by December 31, 2030, and for digital signatures by December 31, 2031 | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) identifies quantum-resistant algorithms and sets a phased transition for National Security Systems | +| European Union | The [2025 EU roadmap](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) calls for a coordinated transition across Member States | +| ENISA | [ENISA's integration study](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) addresses the integration of post-quantum systems into existing protocols | + +These programs begin years before any confirmed CRQC because every vulnerable algorithm must first be found, replaced, tested, and retired. + +## How to Assess Quantum Readiness in a Blockchain + +A credible [migration plan](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union) connects the cryptography currently in use to the people and systems that must adopt its replacement. + +Five checks make that assessment practical. + +1. **Identify the cryptography in use.** Determine which signature schemes, key-establishment methods, hashes, proof systems, and cryptographic libraries protect the chain today. +2. **Map public-key exposure.** Establish when keys become visible, whether they are reused, how long the attack window remains open, and what assets or permissions they control. +3. **Verify what has been deployed.** Separate published research, proposals, testnets, optional mainnet features, and mandatory mainnet protection. +4. **Trace the migration path.** Check how nodes, wallets, exchanges, custodians, bridges, and users will adopt the replacement. The plan should also explain what happens to inactive or inaccessible holdings. +5. **Examine the evidence.** Look for specifications, implementation code, independent audits, performance tests, and clear user instructions. Post-quantum signatures must work across the full environment under realistic conditions. + +To assess a quantum-resistance claim, identify the cryptography still in use, verify that a post-quantum path is active, and confirm that existing accounts and assets can use it. + +## Check Your Ethereum Wallet's Quantum Risk + +Ethereum externally owned accounts have a different exposure pattern from Bitcoin outputs because a public key can be recovered from a published transaction signature. + +Ethereum also has [consensus signatures, data-availability commitments, and proof systems](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure) that need their own post-quantum migration path. + +The [Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) uses public blockchain data to assess public-key exposure and balance sensitivity for an Ethereum address or ENS name. It never requests private keys. diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/es-ES/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/es-ES/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..aab3cf95 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/es-ES/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "¿Qué es el Q-Day?" +metaTitle: "¿Qué es el Q-Day? Su impacto en la seguridad cripto" +description: "El Q-Day es cuando las computadoras cuánticas podrán romper la criptografía de clave pública más usada. Qué amenaza y por qué la migración empieza pronto." +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "¿Qué es el Q-Day?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +El Q-Day es el momento en que una computadora cuántica suficientemente capaz puede romper la criptografía de clave pública que protege sistemas reales con la rapidez necesaria para causar fallos de seguridad, como transacciones falsificadas o datos expuestos. + +RSA y la criptografía de curva elíptica se usan ampliamente para el intercambio de claves y las firmas digitales. + +Para las blockchains, el riesgo depende de la capacidad cuántica, la exposición de claves públicas y la migración. El siguiente marco explica cómo esas condiciones se combinan en un ataque práctico. + +## ¿Cuándo será el Q-Day? + +Nadie puede dar al Q-Day una fecha creíble. Los investigadores aún deben resolver problemas difíciles en hardware cuántico, corrección de errores y computación a gran escala. + +Las previsiones de los expertos reflejan esa incertidumbre. La [encuesta de 2025 del Global Risk Institute](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/) encontró que una computadora cuántica criptográficamente relevante (CRQC) es bastante posible en diez años y probable en quince. Estos rangos de probabilidad apuntan a la década de 2030 sin señalar un año concreto. + +Google anunció un objetivo para 2029 de completar su propia migración a criptografía post-cuántica. Eso no predijo cuándo llegará un CRQC. El objetivo refleja el tiempo necesario para la migración y la posibilidad de que avances en criptoanálisis reduzcan estimaciones de recursos anteriores. [Google anunció el calendario de migración en marzo de 2026](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). + +Los datos confidenciales de larga vida necesitan protección antes del Q-Day. + +En un ataque de recolectar-ahora-descifrar-después, un adversario recopila hoy información cifrada y la almacena hasta que una futura computadora cuántica pueda descifrarla. Los datos que deben permanecer confidenciales durante muchos años ya están en riesgo por esta estrategia. + +![Recolectar ahora, descifrar después: un adversario recopila datos cifrados hoy y los descifra cuando una futura computadora cuántica pueda romper el cifrado](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +Recolectar-ahora-descifrar-después se aplica sobre todo a datos cifrados. Algunas blockchains públicas enfrentan un riesgo relacionado: las claves públicas expuestas onchain siguen disponibles para un ataque futuro, aunque derivar una clave privada aún requiera un CRQC. + +## El Q-Day requiere una computadora cuántica criptográficamente relevante + +Una computadora cuántica criptográficamente relevante, o CRQC, es una computadora cuántica lo bastante potente y fiable para romper la criptografía usada en sistemas reales. + +Los investigadores evalúan esa capacidad con varias métricas. Entre ellas, el número de qubits lógicos fiables, la sobrecarga de corrección de errores, el número de operaciones cuánticas requeridas y el tiempo disponible para completar el ataque. + +Los procesadores cuánticos actuales pueden superar a las computadoras clásicas en experimentos cuidadosamente seleccionados. Todavía carecen de la escala y la tolerancia a fallos necesarias para recuperar una clave privada de blockchain usando el algoritmo de Shor. + +El paper de Google de 2026 estima los recursos que un futuro CRQC superconductor podría necesitar para resolver ECDLP-256 en secp256k1, la curva elíptica que usan Bitcoin y muchas otras chains. Bajo sus supuestos de hardware, el paper estima menos de 500.000 qubits físicos y un tiempo de ejecución de minutos para un ataque. [La investigación de Google explica esos supuestos y estimaciones de recursos](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/). + +La estimación describe una máquina futura. Muestra que los avances en algoritmos y corrección de errores pueden cambiar las estimaciones de recursos antes de que el hardware alcance la escala requerida. + +## ¿Qué amenazaría el Q-Day? + +La principal preocupación del Q-Day para las blockchains es el algoritmo de Shor. Una computadora cuántica suficientemente capaz podría usarlo para resolver los problemas matemáticos que protegen RSA y los sistemas de curva elíptica. [El NIST identifica RSA, DSA y la criptografía de curva elíptica como clases vulnerables](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals). + +La criptografía de clave pública cumple dos funciones principales: + +1. Ayuda a dos partes a establecer un secreto compartido a través de una red no confiable. +2. Permite al titular de una clave privada producir una firma digital que demuestre autorización. + +Las blockchains dependen mucho de las firmas digitales. Bitcoin usa ECDSA para las rutas de gasto más antiguas y firmas Schnorr para Taproot. Otras chains hacen sus propias elecciones entre esquemas de firma de curva elíptica, incluidos ECDSA y EdDSA. Si un atacante puede derivar una clave privada a partir de una clave pública expuesta, podrá producir una firma que la red puede aceptar como válida. + +| Función criptográfica | Ejemplos comunes | Efecto cuántico | Implicación práctica | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Establecimiento de claves y cifrado de clave pública | RSA, ECDH | El algoritmo de Shor amenaza los problemas matemáticos subyacentes | Registros cifrados capturados previamente podrían volverse legibles | +| Firmas digitales | Firmas RSA, ECDSA, EdDSA | El algoritmo de Shor podría permitir recuperar la clave privada | Un atacante podría falsificar transacciones u otras autorizaciones | +| Cifrado simétrico | AES | El algoritmo de Grover reduce el coste de la búsqueda por fuerza bruta | El tamaño de clave y el coste práctico del ataque determinan el margen de seguridad restante | +| Hashing | SHA-256, SHA-3 | La búsqueda cuántica reduce algunos márgenes de seguridad | Las funciones dependientes de hash requieren una evaluación aparte | + +Por tanto, las firmas digitales de Bitcoin y SHA-256 enfrentan amenazas cuánticas distintas. + +ECDSA autoriza el gasto. Un ataque de Shor exitoso podría recuperar una clave privada a partir de su clave pública y habilitar transacciones falsificadas. + +SHA-256 respalda la minería y otras funciones dependientes de hash. Su amenaza cuántica relevante es el [algoritmo de Grover](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking), que ofrece una aceleración genérica de búsqueda. Esto no le da a un atacante la misma vía directa de recuperación de clave privada. [La guía post-cuántica del NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs) trata ambos modelos de ataque por separado. + +## Cómo la capacidad cuántica se convierte en un ataque a blockchain + +![La capacidad cuántica, la exposición de claves públicas y la migración incompleta se combinan en un riesgo cuántico práctico](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +Una blockchain se vuelve vulnerable cuando una computadora cuántica capaz puede explotar una clave pública expuesta antes de que una migración post-cuántica proteja los activos relevantes. + +### La máquina puede completar el ataque + +El atacante necesita suficiente capacidad cuántica fiable para derivar una clave privada dentro del tiempo disponible para el objetivo. + +El tiempo disponible depende del objetivo. Una clave pública visible onchain durante años le da a un atacante mucho más tiempo para derivar la clave privada correspondiente que una clave revelada después de que se transmite una transacción y antes de que se confirme. + +### La clave pública está disponible + +Una computadora cuántica no puede derivar una clave privada sin la clave pública correspondiente. + +Algunos outputs de Bitcoin registran la clave pública directamente. Otros almacenan inicialmente un hash de la clave pública y revelan la clave completa cuando el titular gasta. Reutilizar una dirección puede dejar fondos nuevos protegidos por una clave que ya ha sido expuesta. + +El análisis de Google de 2026 estima que las direcciones con claves públicas expuestas o reutilizadas contienen aproximadamente 6,7 millones de BTC que podrían enfrentar un ataque en reposo por parte de un futuro CRQC. + +Alrededor de 2,3 millones de BTC en el análisis habían estado inactivos durante al menos cinco años, mientras que aproximadamente 1,7 millones de BTC están bloqueados en outputs pay-to-public-key tempranos. [El paper de Google](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf) explica los supuestos y el método detrás de estas estimaciones. + +Estos saldos se vuelven atacables cuando un CRQC puede derivar las claves privadas correspondientes. Los titulares que aún controlan sus claves podrían migrar sus fondos una vez que la chain haya desplegado una ruta de gasto post-cuántica y las wallets y servicios que la soportan la hayan adoptado. Las claves perdidas o abandonadas crean un problema más difícil porque puede que nadie esté disponible para autorizar la migración. + +[El problema de migración de Bitcoin también es un problema de coordinación](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization), porque ningún operador central puede garantizar que cada titular, wallet, exchange, custodio y operador de nodo se actualice. + +### La migración sigue incompleta + +Añadir un esquema de firma post-cuántico a un protocolo es solo una parte de la migración. Los nodos deben hacer cumplir las nuevas reglas, las wallets deben crear y gestionar nuevas claves, y los exchanges y custodios deben soportar el nuevo formato de transacción. + +Los activos existentes siguen siendo vulnerables hasta que los usuarios puedan moverlos a través de una ruta post-cuántica activada y soportada. Una propuesta, un paper de investigación, una testnet o una función opcional de mainnet muestran avance; no protegen los activos controlados por claves vulnerables. + +## Por qué la migración empieza años antes del Q-Day + +El NIST finalizó sus primeros tres estándares post-cuánticos en agosto de 2024: + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) especifica ML-KEM, un método basado en retículos para establecer claves compartidas. +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) especifica ML-DSA, un esquema de firma digital basado en retículos. +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) especifica SLH-DSA, un esquema de firma digital basado en hash. + +Los estándares basados en retículos ofrecen opciones principales eficientes para el establecimiento de claves y las firmas. El estándar basado en hash da a los implementadores una opción de firma construida sobre supuestos matemáticos distintos. + +Hablamos sobre el Q-Day, la migración post-cuántica y la presión por actualizar la criptografía vulnerable con Alex Pruden en el QDay Podcast. + + + +Elegir un algoritmo pone en marcha una migración. En el software ordinario, una nueva biblioteca criptográfica puede llegar a los usuarios mediante una actualización rutinaria, pero el proveedor igualmente debe cambiar protocolos, certificados, soporte de hardware y servicios dependientes. + +El NIST señala que integrar un algoritmo criptográfico estandarizado en los sistemas de información [históricamente ha tardado entre 10 y 20 años](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography). + +## Qué están haciendo los gobiernos y los organismos de estándares + +Los gobiernos ya tratan la migración post-cuántica como un programa de seguridad plurianual. + +| Organización | Preparación en marcha | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [El NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) finalizó sus primeros estándares PQC en 2024 y planea retirar los algoritmos vulnerables a lo cuántico de sus estándares para 2035, con los sistemas de alto riesgo migrando antes | +| Gobierno federal de EE. UU. | La [Orden Ejecutiva 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/) y la [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) exigen que los sistemas de alto valor y alto impacto cubiertos usen PQC para el establecimiento de claves antes del 31 de diciembre de 2030 y para las firmas digitales antes del 31 de diciembre de 2031 | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) identifica algoritmos resistentes a lo cuántico y establece una transición por fases para los National Security Systems | +| Unión Europea | La [hoja de ruta de la UE de 2025](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) pide una transición coordinada entre los estados miembros | +| ENISA | El [estudio de integración de ENISA](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) aborda la integración de sistemas post-cuánticos en protocolos existentes | + +Estos programas comienzan años antes de que se confirme cualquier CRQC porque primero hay que encontrar, sustituir, probar y retirar cada algoritmo vulnerable. + +## Cómo evaluar la preparación cuántica de una blockchain + +Un [plan de migración](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union) creíble conecta la criptografía actualmente en uso con las personas y sistemas que deben adoptar su reemplazo. + +Cinco comprobaciones hacen que esta evaluación sea práctica. + +1. **Identificar la criptografía en uso.** Determinar qué esquemas de firma, métodos de establecimiento de claves, hashes, sistemas de prueba y bibliotecas criptográficas protegen la chain hoy. +2. **Mapear la exposición de claves públicas.** Establecer cuándo las claves se vuelven visibles, si se reutilizan, cuánto tiempo permanece abierta la ventana de ataque y qué activos o permisos controlan. +3. **Verificar qué se ha desplegado realmente.** Separar investigación publicada, propuestas, testnets, funciones opcionales de mainnet y protección obligatoria en mainnet. +4. **Trazar la ruta de migración.** Comprobar cómo nodos, wallets, exchanges, custodios, puentes y usuarios adoptarán el reemplazo. El plan también debería explicar qué ocurre con las tenencias inactivas o inaccesibles. +5. **Examinar la evidencia.** Buscar especificaciones, código de implementación, auditorías independientes, pruebas de rendimiento e instrucciones claras para el usuario. Las firmas post-cuánticas deben funcionar en todo el entorno bajo condiciones realistas. + +Para evaluar una afirmación de resistencia cuántica, identifica la criptografía que aún está en uso, verifica que una ruta post-cuántica esté activa y confirma que las cuentas y activos existentes puedan usarla. + +## Comprueba el riesgo cuántico de tu wallet de Ethereum + +Las cuentas de propiedad externa de Ethereum tienen un patrón de exposición distinto al de los outputs de Bitcoin, porque una clave pública puede recuperarse a partir de una firma de transacción publicada. + +Ethereum también cuenta con [firmas de consenso, compromisos de disponibilidad de datos y sistemas de prueba](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure) que necesitan su propia ruta de migración post-cuántica. + +El [Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) usa datos públicos de blockchain para evaluar la exposición de claves públicas y la sensibilidad del saldo de una dirección de Ethereum o un nombre ENS. Nunca solicita claves privadas. diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/hi-IN/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/hi-IN/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cc318606 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/hi-IN/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "Q-Day क्या है?" +metaTitle: "Q-Day क्या है? क्रिप्टो सुरक्षा के लिए इसका मतलब" +description: "Q-Day वह सीमा है जब क्वांटम कंप्यूटर आम पब्लिक-की क्रिप्टोग्राफी तोड़ सकते हैं। जानें क्रिप्टो को क्या खतरा है और माइग्रेशन जल्दी क्यों शुरू होता है।" +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "Q-Day क्या है?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day वह बिंदु है जब एक पर्याप्त सक्षम क्वांटम कंप्यूटर वास्तविक सिस्टम की रक्षा करने वाली पब्लिक-की क्रिप्टोग्राफी को इतनी तेज़ी से तोड़ सकता है कि जाली लेनदेन या उजागर डेटा जैसी सुरक्षा विफलताएँ हो जाएँ। + +RSA और इलिप्टिक-कर्व क्रिप्टोग्राफी का इस्तेमाल की-एक्सचेंज और डिजिटल हस्ताक्षरों के लिए व्यापक रूप से किया जाता है। + +ब्लॉकचेन के लिए, जोखिम क्वांटम क्षमता, पब्लिक-की एक्सपोज़र और माइग्रेशन पर निर्भर करता है। नीचे दिया गया फ्रेमवर्क बताता है कि ये स्थितियाँ मिलकर एक व्यावहारिक हमले में कैसे बदलती हैं। + +## Q-Day कब होगा? + +कोई भी Q-Day के लिए भरोसेमंद तारीख नहीं दे सकता। शोधकर्ताओं को अभी भी क्वांटम हार्डवेयर, एरर करेक्शन और बड़े पैमाने की कम्प्यूटेशन में कठिन समस्याएँ सुलझानी हैं। + +विशेषज्ञों के अनुमान इसी अनिश्चितता को दर्शाते हैं। [Global Risk Institute के 2025 सर्वे](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/) में पाया गया कि एक क्रिप्टोग्राफिक रूप से प्रासंगिक क्वांटम कंप्यूटर (CRQC) दस साल में काफी संभव है और पंद्रह साल में संभावित है। ये संभावना सीमाएँ किसी खास साल के बिना 2030 के दशक की ओर इशारा करती हैं। + +Google ने अपने पोस्ट-क्वांटम क्रिप्टोग्राफी माइग्रेशन को पूरा करने के लिए 2029 का लक्ष्य घोषित किया। इसने यह भविष्यवाणी नहीं की कि CRQC कब आएगा। यह लक्ष्य माइग्रेशन के लिए ज़रूरी समय और इस संभावना को दर्शाता है कि क्रिप्टएनालिटिक प्रगति पहले के संसाधन अनुमानों को कम कर सकती है। [Google ने मार्च 2026 में माइग्रेशन टाइमलाइन घोषित की](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/)। + +लंबे समय तक गोपनीय रहने वाले डेटा को Q-Day से पहले सुरक्षा की ज़रूरत है। + +हार्वेस्ट-नाउ, डिक्रिप्ट-लेटर हमले में, एक हमलावर आज एन्क्रिप्टेड जानकारी इकट्ठा करता है और उसे तब तक स्टोर रखता है जब तक भविष्य का कोई क्वांटम कंप्यूटर उसे डिक्रिप्ट न कर सके। जिस डेटा को कई सालों तक गोपनीय रहना ज़रूरी है, वह इस रणनीति से पहले से ही खतरे में है। + +![हार्वेस्ट-नाउ, डिक्रिप्ट-लेटर: एक हमलावर आज एन्क्रिप्टेड डेटा इकट्ठा करता है और भविष्य का क्वांटम कंप्यूटर एन्क्रिप्शन तोड़ पाने पर उसे डिक्रिप्ट कर देता है](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +हार्वेस्ट-नाउ, डिक्रिप्ट-लेटर सबसे सीधे एन्क्रिप्टेड डेटा पर लागू होता है। कुछ सार्वजनिक ब्लॉकचेन एक संबंधित जोखिम का सामना करती हैं: ऑनचेन उजागर पब्लिक की भविष्य के हमले के लिए उपलब्ध रहती हैं, भले ही प्राइवेट की निकालने के लिए अब भी CRQC चाहिए। + +## Q-Day के लिए क्रिप्टोग्राफिक रूप से प्रासंगिक क्वांटम कंप्यूटर ज़रूरी है + +एक क्रिप्टोग्राफिक रूप से प्रासंगिक क्वांटम कंप्यूटर, या CRQC, ऐसा क्वांटम कंप्यूटर है जो वास्तविक सिस्टम में इस्तेमाल होने वाली क्रिप्टोग्राफी को तोड़ने के लिए पर्याप्त शक्तिशाली और भरोसेमंद हो। + +शोधकर्ता इस क्षमता को कई मापदंडों से आँकते हैं। इनमें भरोसेमंद लॉजिकल क्यूबिट्स की संख्या, एरर-करेक्शन ओवरहेड, आवश्यक क्वांटम ऑपरेशनों की संख्या, और हमला पूरा करने के लिए उपलब्ध समय शामिल है। + +आज के क्वांटम प्रोसेसर सावधानी से चुने गए प्रयोगों में क्लासिकल कंप्यूटरों से बेहतर प्रदर्शन कर सकते हैं। फिर भी उनमें Shor's algorithm का उपयोग करके किसी ब्लॉकचेन प्राइवेट की को निकालने के लिए ज़रूरी स्केल और फॉल्ट-टॉलरेंस की कमी है। + +Google के 2026 के पेपर में secp256k1 पर ECDLP-256 हल करने के लिए भविष्य के सुपरकंडक्टिंग CRQC को चाहिए होने वाले संसाधनों का अनुमान लगाया गया है — यही वह इलिप्टिक कर्व है जिसे Bitcoin और कई अन्य चेन इस्तेमाल करती हैं। अपनी बताई गई हार्डवेयर धारणाओं के तहत, पेपर एक हमले के लिए 500,000 से कम फिजिकल क्यूबिट्स और कुछ मिनटों के रनटाइम का अनुमान लगाता है। [Google का शोध इन धारणाओं और संसाधन अनुमानों को समझाता है](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/)। + +यह अनुमान एक भविष्य की मशीन के बारे में है। यह दिखाता है कि हार्डवेयर के ज़रूरी स्केल तक पहुँचने से पहले ही एल्गोरिदम और एरर-करेक्शन में प्रगति संसाधन अनुमानों को बदल सकती है। + +## Q-Day से किसे खतरा होगा? + +ब्लॉकचेन के लिए Q-Day की मुख्य चिंता Shor's algorithm है। एक पर्याप्त सक्षम क्वांटम कंप्यूटर इसका इस्तेमाल करके RSA और इलिप्टिक-कर्व सिस्टम की रक्षा करने वाली गणितीय समस्याओं को हल कर सकता है। [NIST RSA, DSA और इलिप्टिक-कर्व क्रिप्टोग्राफी को कमज़ोर वर्ग मानता है](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals)। + +पब्लिक-की क्रिप्टोग्राफी के दो मुख्य काम हैं: + +1. यह दो पक्षों को एक भरोसेमंद न होने वाले नेटवर्क पर एक साझा गुप्त कोड बनाने में मदद करती है। +2. यह प्राइवेट-की के मालिक को एक डिजिटल हस्ताक्षर बनाने देती है जो अधिकार साबित करता है। + +ब्लॉकचेन डिजिटल हस्ताक्षरों पर काफी हद तक निर्भर करती हैं। Bitcoin पुराने स्पेंडिंग पथों के लिए ECDSA और Taproot के लिए Schnorr हस्ताक्षर इस्तेमाल करता है। अन्य चेन ECDSA और EdDSA सहित इलिप्टिक-कर्व हस्ताक्षर योजनाओं में अपनी पसंद चुनती हैं। अगर कोई हमलावर उजागर पब्लिक की से प्राइवेट की निकाल ले, तो वह ऐसा हस्ताक्षर बना सकता है जिसे नेटवर्क वैध मान सकता है। + +| क्रिप्टोग्राफिक फंक्शन | सामान्य उदाहरण | क्वांटम प्रभाव | व्यावहारिक असर | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| की-एस्टैब्लिशमेंट और पब्लिक-की एन्क्रिप्शन | RSA, ECDH | Shor's algorithm मूल गणितीय समस्याओं को खतरे में डालता है | पहले कैप्चर किए गए एन्क्रिप्टेड रिकॉर्ड पढ़े जा सकने लायक बन सकते हैं | +| डिजिटल हस्ताक्षर | RSA हस्ताक्षर, ECDSA, EdDSA | Shor's algorithm प्राइवेट-की रिकवरी को संभव बना सकता है | हमलावर लेनदेन या अन्य अधिकार जाली बना सकता है | +| सिमेट्रिक एन्क्रिप्शन | AES | Grover's algorithm ब्रूट-फोर्स सर्च की लागत कम करता है | की-साइज़ और व्यावहारिक हमले की लागत बचे हुए सुरक्षा मार्जिन को तय करती है | +| हैशिंग | SHA-256, SHA-3 | क्वांटम सर्च कुछ सुरक्षा मार्जिन कम कर देती है | हैश-निर्भर फंक्शनों के लिए अलग आकलन ज़रूरी है | + +इसलिए Bitcoin के डिजिटल हस्ताक्षर और SHA-256 अलग-अलग क्वांटम खतरों का सामना करते हैं। + +ECDSA खर्च को अधिकृत करता है। एक सफल Shor हमला पब्लिक की से प्राइवेट की निकाल सकता है और जाली लेनदेन संभव बना सकता है। + +SHA-256 माइनिंग और अन्य हैश-निर्भर फंक्शनों को सपोर्ट करता है। इसका प्रासंगिक क्वांटम खतरा [Grover's algorithm](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking) है, जो सर्च के लिए एक सामान्य स्पीडअप देता है। इससे हमलावर को प्राइवेट-की रिकवरी का वही सीधा रास्ता नहीं मिलता। [NIST का पोस्ट-क्वांटम मार्गदर्शन](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs) इन दोनों हमला मॉडलों को अलग-अलग मानता है। + +## क्वांटम क्षमता ब्लॉकचेन हमले में कैसे बदलती है + +![क्वांटम क्षमता, पब्लिक-की एक्सपोज़र और अधूरा माइग्रेशन मिलकर एक व्यावहारिक क्वांटम जोखिम बनाते हैं](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +एक ब्लॉकचेन तब कमज़ोर हो जाती है जब कोई सक्षम क्वांटम कंप्यूटर पोस्ट-क्वांटम माइग्रेशन द्वारा संबंधित एसेट्स की सुरक्षा करने से पहले ही उजागर पब्लिक की का फायदा उठा सके। + +### मशीन हमला पूरा कर सकती है + +हमलावर को लक्ष्य के लिए उपलब्ध समय के भीतर प्राइवेट की निकालने के लिए पर्याप्त भरोसेमंद क्वांटम क्षमता चाहिए। + +उपलब्ध समय लक्ष्य पर निर्भर करता है। सालों तक ऑनचेन दिखने वाली पब्लिक की, हमलावर को उससे जुड़ी प्राइवेट की निकालने के लिए उस की से कहीं ज़्यादा समय देती है जो लेनदेन प्रसारित होने के बाद और कन्फर्म होने से पहले उजागर होती है। + +### पब्लिक की उपलब्ध है + +एक क्वांटम कंप्यूटर संबंधित पब्लिक की के बिना प्राइवेट की नहीं निकाल सकता। + +कुछ Bitcoin आउटपुट सीधे पब्लिक की रिकॉर्ड करते हैं। बाकी शुरू में केवल पब्लिक की का हैश स्टोर करते हैं और मालिक के खर्च करने पर ही पूरी की उजागर करते हैं। किसी एड्रेस को दोबारा इस्तेमाल करने से नए फंड ऐसी की से सुरक्षित रह सकते हैं जो पहले ही उजागर हो चुकी है। + +Google के 2026 के विश्लेषण का अनुमान है कि उजागर या दोबारा इस्तेमाल की गई पब्लिक की वाले एड्रेस में लगभग 6.7 मिलियन BTC है, जिन पर भविष्य के CRQC से एट-रेस्ट हमले का खतरा हो सकता है। + +विश्लेषण में लगभग 2.3 मिलियन BTC कम से कम पाँच सालों से निष्क्रिय थे, जबकि लगभग 1.7 मिलियन BTC शुरुआती pay-to-public-key आउटपुट में बंद हैं। [Google का पेपर](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf) इन अनुमानों के पीछे की धारणाओं और तरीके को समझाता है। + +ये बैलेंस तब हमले के लायक बन जाते हैं जब कोई CRQC संबंधित प्राइवेट की निकाल सके। जिन मालिकों के पास अब भी अपनी की का नियंत्रण है, वे चेन द्वारा पोस्ट-क्वांटम स्पेंडिंग रूट डिप्लॉय करने और सपोर्टिंग वॉलेट व सेवाओं के इसे अपनाने के बाद अपने फंड माइग्रेट कर सकते हैं। खोई या छोड़ी गई की एक कठिन समस्या बनाती हैं क्योंकि माइग्रेशन को अधिकृत करने के लिए शायद कोई मौजूद ही न हो। + +[Bitcoin की माइग्रेशन समस्या एक समन्वय समस्या भी है](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization), क्योंकि कोई केंद्रीय ऑपरेटर यह सुनिश्चित नहीं कर सकता कि हर होल्डर, वॉलेट, एक्सचेंज, कस्टोडियन और नोड ऑपरेटर अपग्रेड करे। + +### माइग्रेशन अब भी अधूरा है + +किसी प्रोटोकॉल में पोस्ट-क्वांटम हस्ताक्षर योजना जोड़ना माइग्रेशन का सिर्फ एक हिस्सा है। नोड्स को नए नियम लागू करने होंगे, वॉलेट्स को नई की बनानी और मैनेज करनी होंगी, और एक्सचेंजों व कस्टोडियन को नए ट्रांज़ैक्शन फॉर्मैट को सपोर्ट करना होगा। + +मौजूदा एसेट्स तब तक कमज़ोर रहते हैं जब तक यूज़र्स उन्हें किसी एक्टिवेटेड, सपोर्टेड पोस्ट-क्वांटम रास्ते से न ले जा सकें। कोई प्रस्ताव, रिसर्च पेपर, टेस्टनेट या वैकल्पिक मेननेट फीचर प्रगति दिखाता है; लेकिन यह कमज़ोर की से नियंत्रित एसेट्स की सुरक्षा नहीं करता। + +## माइग्रेशन Q-Day से कई साल पहले क्यों शुरू होता है + +NIST ने अगस्त 2024 में अपने पहले तीन पोस्ट-क्वांटम स्टैंडर्ड फाइनल किए: + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) ML-KEM को परिभाषित करता है, साझा की बनाने के लिए एक लैटिस-आधारित तरीका। +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) ML-DSA को परिभाषित करता है, एक लैटिस-आधारित डिजिटल-हस्ताक्षर योजना। +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) SLH-DSA को परिभाषित करता है, एक हैश-आधारित डिजिटल-हस्ताक्षर योजना। + +लैटिस-आधारित स्टैंडर्ड की-एस्टैब्लिशमेंट और हस्ताक्षरों के लिए कुशल मुख्य विकल्प देते हैं। हैश-आधारित स्टैंडर्ड इम्प्लीमेंटर्स को अलग गणितीय धारणाओं पर बना एक हस्ताक्षर विकल्प देता है। + +हमने Q-Day, पोस्ट-क्वांटम माइग्रेशन, और कमज़ोर क्रिप्टोग्राफी को अपग्रेड करने के दबाव पर QDay Podcast में Alex Pruden से बात की। + + + +एक एल्गोरिदम चुनना माइग्रेशन शुरू कर देता है। सामान्य सॉफ्टवेयर में, एक नई क्रिप्टोग्राफिक लाइब्रेरी किसी रूटीन अपडेट के ज़रिए यूज़र्स तक पहुँच सकती है, लेकिन वेंडर को फिर भी प्रोटोकॉल, सर्टिफिकेट, हार्डवेयर सपोर्ट और निर्भर सेवाओं को बदलना पड़ता है। + +NIST बताता है कि सूचना प्रणालियों में एक स्टैंडर्डाइज़्ड क्रिप्टोग्राफिक एल्गोरिदम को एकीकृत करने में [ऐतिहासिक रूप से 10 से 20 साल लगे हैं](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography)। + +## सरकारें और स्टैंडर्ड बॉडीज़ क्या कर रही हैं + +सरकारें पोस्ट-क्वांटम माइग्रेशन को पहले से ही एक बहु-वर्षीय सुरक्षा कार्यक्रम की तरह ले रही हैं। + +| संगठन | जारी तैयारी | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) ने 2024 में अपने पहले PQC स्टैंडर्ड फाइनल किए और 2035 तक क्वांटम-कमज़ोर एल्गोरिदम को अपने स्टैंडर्ड से हटाने की योजना बनाई है, जिसमें उच्च-जोखिम वाले सिस्टम पहले माइग्रेट होंगे | +| संयुक्त राज्य संघीय सरकार | [Executive Order 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/) और [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) के तहत कवर किए गए उच्च-मूल्य और उच्च-प्रभाव सिस्टम को 31 दिसंबर 2030 तक की-एस्टैब्लिशमेंट के लिए और 31 दिसंबर 2031 तक डिजिटल हस्ताक्षरों के लिए PQC इस्तेमाल करना ज़रूरी है | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) क्वांटम-प्रतिरोधी एल्गोरिदम को पहचानता है और National Security Systems के लिए एक चरणबद्ध ट्रांज़िशन तय करता है | +| यूरोपीय संघ | [2025 का EU रोडमैप](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) सदस्य देशों के बीच समन्वित ट्रांज़िशन की माँग करता है | +| ENISA | [ENISA का इंटीग्रेशन स्टडी](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) मौजूदा प्रोटोकॉल में पोस्ट-क्वांटम सिस्टम के इंटीग्रेशन को संबोधित करता है | + +ये कार्यक्रम किसी भी पुष्टि किए गए CRQC से कई साल पहले शुरू होते हैं क्योंकि हर कमज़ोर एल्गोरिदम को पहले खोजना, बदलना, टेस्ट करना और रिटायर करना ज़रूरी होता है। + +## किसी ब्लॉकचेन में क्वांटम तैयारी कैसे आँकें + +एक भरोसेमंद [माइग्रेशन प्लान](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union) मौजूदा क्रिप्टोग्राफी को उन लोगों और सिस्टम से जोड़ता है जिन्हें उसका विकल्प अपनाना है। + +पाँच जाँचें इस आकलन को व्यावहारिक बनाती हैं। + +1. **इस्तेमाल हो रही क्रिप्टोग्राफी की पहचान करें।** तय करें कि कौन-सी हस्ताक्षर योजनाएँ, की-एस्टैब्लिशमेंट तरीके, हैश, प्रूफ सिस्टम और क्रिप्टोग्राफिक लाइब्रेरी आज चेन की रक्षा करती हैं। +2. **पब्लिक-की एक्सपोज़र मैप करें।** तय करें कि की कब दिखाई देने लगती हैं, क्या उन्हें दोबारा इस्तेमाल किया जाता है, हमले की खिड़की कितनी देर खुली रहती है, और वे कौन-से एसेट्स या अनुमतियाँ नियंत्रित करती हैं। +3. **जो डिप्लॉय हुआ है उसे सत्यापित करें।** प्रकाशित रिसर्च, प्रस्तावों, टेस्टनेट, वैकल्पिक मेननेट फीचर्स और अनिवार्य मेननेट सुरक्षा को अलग करें। +4. **माइग्रेशन पथ का पता लगाएँ।** देखें कि नोड्स, वॉलेट्स, एक्सचेंज, कस्टोडियन, ब्रिज और यूज़र्स विकल्प कैसे अपनाएँगे। प्लान में यह भी बताया जाना चाहिए कि निष्क्रिय या पहुँच से बाहर होल्डिंग्स का क्या होगा। +5. **सबूत जाँचें।** स्पेसिफिकेशन, इम्प्लीमेंटेशन कोड, स्वतंत्र ऑडिट, परफॉर्मेंस टेस्ट और स्पष्ट यूज़र निर्देश देखें। पोस्ट-क्वांटम हस्ताक्षरों को पूरे माहौल में वास्तविक परिस्थितियों में काम करना चाहिए। + +किसी क्वांटम-रेज़िस्टेंस दावे को आँकने के लिए, इस्तेमाल हो रही क्रिप्टोग्राफी की पहचान करें, पुष्टि करें कि पोस्ट-क्वांटम रास्ता एक्टिव है, और यह पक्का करें कि मौजूदा अकाउंट व एसेट्स उसे इस्तेमाल कर सकते हैं। + +## अपने Ethereum वॉलेट का क्वांटम जोखिम जाँचें + +Ethereum के externally owned accounts का एक्सपोज़र पैटर्न Bitcoin आउटपुट से अलग होता है, क्योंकि किसी प्रकाशित ट्रांज़ैक्शन हस्ताक्षर से पब्लिक की निकाली जा सकती है। + +Ethereum के पास [कंसेंसस हस्ताक्षर, डेटा-अवेलेबिलिटी कमिटमेंट और प्रूफ सिस्टम](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure) भी हैं, जिन्हें अपना अलग पोस्ट-क्वांटम माइग्रेशन रास्ता चाहिए। + +[Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) किसी Ethereum एड्रेस या ENS नाम के लिए पब्लिक-की एक्सपोज़र और बैलेंस संवेदनशीलता आँकने के लिए सार्वजनिक ब्लॉकचेन डेटा इस्तेमाल करता है। यह कभी प्राइवेट की नहीं माँगता। diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/id-ID/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/id-ID/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4e55c66e --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/id-ID/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "Apa Itu Q-Day?" +metaTitle: "Apa Itu Q-Day? Dampaknya bagi Keamanan Kripto" +description: "Q-Day adalah saat komputer kuantum bisa membobol kriptografi kunci publik yang lazim dipakai. Ancamannya bagi kripto dan mengapa migrasi dimulai lebih awal." +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "Apa Itu Q-Day?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day adalah titik ketika komputer kuantum yang cukup mumpuni bisa membobol kriptografi kunci publik yang melindungi sistem nyata, cukup cepat untuk menyebabkan kegagalan keamanan seperti transaksi palsu atau data yang terbongkar. + +RSA dan kriptografi kurva eliptik banyak dipakai untuk pertukaran kunci dan tanda tangan digital. + +Bagi blockchain, risikonya bergantung pada kapabilitas kuantum, eksposur kunci publik, dan migrasi. Kerangka kerja di bawah ini menjelaskan bagaimana ketiga kondisi itu bergabung menjadi serangan yang nyata. + +## Kapan Q-Day Terjadi? + +Tidak ada yang bisa memberi tanggal pasti untuk Q-Day. Para peneliti masih harus memecahkan masalah sulit dalam hardware kuantum, koreksi galat, dan komputasi skala besar. + +Perkiraan para ahli mencerminkan ketidakpastian itu. [Survei Global Risk Institute 2025](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/) menemukan bahwa komputer kuantum yang relevan secara kriptografis (CRQC) cukup mungkin muncul dalam sepuluh tahun dan kemungkinan besar dalam lima belas tahun. Rentang probabilitas ini mengarah ke dekade 2030-an tanpa menunjuk tahun tertentu. + +Google mengumumkan target 2029 untuk menyelesaikan migrasi kriptografi pasca-kuantum miliknya sendiri. Itu bukan prediksi kapan CRQC akan muncul. Target itu mencerminkan waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk migrasi dan kemungkinan bahwa kemajuan kriptanalisis dapat mengurangi estimasi sumber daya sebelumnya. [Google mengumumkan linimasa migrasi pada Maret 2026](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). + +Data rahasia berumur panjang perlu dilindungi sebelum Q-Day. + +Dalam serangan harvest-now, decrypt-later, penyerang mengumpulkan informasi terenkripsi hari ini dan menyimpannya sampai komputer kuantum di masa depan bisa mendekripsinya. Data yang harus tetap rahasia selama bertahun-tahun sudah berisiko akibat strategi ini. + +![Harvest-now, decrypt-later: penyerang mengumpulkan data terenkripsi hari ini dan mendekripsinya begitu komputer kuantum di masa depan bisa membobol enkripsinya](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +Harvest-now, decrypt-later paling langsung berlaku pada data terenkripsi. Beberapa blockchain publik menghadapi risiko serupa: kunci publik yang terbongkar di onchain tetap tersedia untuk serangan di masa depan, meskipun menurunkan kunci privat tetap memerlukan CRQC. + +## Q-Day Membutuhkan Komputer Kuantum yang Relevan secara Kriptografis + +Komputer kuantum yang relevan secara kriptografis, atau CRQC, adalah komputer kuantum yang cukup kuat dan andal untuk membobol kriptografi yang dipakai dalam sistem nyata. + +Peneliti menilai kapabilitas itu dengan beberapa ukuran. Ini termasuk jumlah qubit logis yang andal, overhead koreksi galat, jumlah operasi kuantum yang diperlukan, dan waktu yang tersedia untuk menuntaskan serangan. + +Prosesor kuantum saat ini bisa mengungguli komputer klasik pada eksperimen yang dipilih dengan cermat. Mereka masih kekurangan skala dan toleransi galat yang diperlukan untuk memulihkan kunci privat blockchain memakai algoritma Shor. + +Makalah Google tahun 2026 memperkirakan sumber daya yang dibutuhkan CRQC superkonduktor masa depan untuk memecahkan ECDLP-256 pada secp256k1, kurva eliptik yang dipakai Bitcoin dan banyak chain lain. Dengan asumsi hardware yang dinyatakan, makalah itu memperkirakan kurang dari 500.000 qubit fisik dan waktu eksekusi hanya beberapa menit untuk satu serangan. [Riset Google menjelaskan asumsi dan estimasi sumber daya tersebut](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/). + +Estimasi ini menggambarkan mesin masa depan. Ini menunjukkan bahwa kemajuan algoritma dan koreksi galat bisa mengubah estimasi sumber daya sebelum hardware mencapai skala yang diperlukan. + +## Apa yang Diancam Q-Day? + +Kekhawatiran utama Q-Day bagi blockchain adalah algoritma Shor. Komputer kuantum yang cukup mumpuni bisa memakainya untuk memecahkan masalah matematis yang melindungi sistem RSA dan kurva eliptik. [NIST mengidentifikasi RSA, DSA, dan kriptografi kurva eliptik sebagai kelas yang rentan](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals). + +Kriptografi kunci publik punya dua tugas utama: + +1. Membantu dua pihak membangun rahasia bersama lewat jaringan yang tidak tepercaya. +2. Memungkinkan pemegang kunci privat membuat tanda tangan digital yang membuktikan otorisasi. + +Blockchain sangat bergantung pada tanda tangan digital. Bitcoin memakai ECDSA untuk jalur pengeluaran lama dan tanda tangan Schnorr untuk Taproot. Chain lain membuat pilihan mereka sendiri di antara skema tanda tangan kurva eliptik, termasuk ECDSA dan EdDSA. Jika penyerang bisa menurunkan kunci privat dari kunci publik yang terbongkar, mereka bisa membuat tanda tangan yang mungkin diterima jaringan sebagai valid. + +| Fungsi kriptografi | Contoh umum | Efek kuantum | Implikasi praktis | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Pembentukan kunci dan enkripsi kunci publik | RSA, ECDH | Algoritma Shor mengancam masalah matematis yang mendasarinya | Catatan terenkripsi yang sudah tertangkap sebelumnya bisa menjadi terbaca | +| Tanda tangan digital | Tanda tangan RSA, ECDSA, EdDSA | Algoritma Shor bisa memungkinkan pemulihan kunci privat | Penyerang mungkin bisa memalsukan transaksi atau otorisasi lain | +| Enkripsi simetris | AES | Algoritma Grover menurunkan biaya pencarian brute-force | Ukuran kunci dan biaya serangan praktis menentukan sisa margin keamanan | +| Hashing | SHA-256, SHA-3 | Pencarian kuantum menurunkan sebagian margin keamanan | Fungsi yang bergantung pada hash memerlukan penilaian terpisah | + +Tanda tangan digital Bitcoin dan SHA-256 karena itu menghadapi ancaman kuantum yang berbeda. + +ECDSA mengotorisasi pengeluaran. Serangan Shor yang berhasil bisa memulihkan kunci privat dari kunci publiknya dan memungkinkan transaksi palsu. + +SHA-256 mendukung mining dan fungsi lain yang bergantung pada hash. Ancaman kuantum yang relevan adalah [algoritma Grover](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking), yang memberikan percepatan generik untuk pencarian. Ini tidak memberi penyerang jalur pemulihan kunci privat langsung yang sama. [Panduan pasca-kuantum NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs) memperlakukan kedua model serangan ini secara terpisah. + +## Bagaimana Kapabilitas Kuantum Berubah Menjadi Serangan Blockchain + +![Kapabilitas kuantum, eksposur kunci publik, dan migrasi yang belum tuntas bergabung menjadi risiko kuantum yang nyata](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +Sebuah blockchain menjadi rentan ketika komputer kuantum yang mumpuni bisa mengeksploitasi kunci publik yang terbongkar sebelum migrasi pasca-kuantum melindungi aset terkait. + +### Mesinnya Bisa Menuntaskan Serangan + +Penyerang memerlukan kapasitas kuantum andal yang cukup untuk menurunkan kunci privat dalam waktu yang tersedia untuk target. + +Waktu yang tersedia bergantung pada target. Kunci publik yang terlihat di onchain selama bertahun-tahun memberi penyerang waktu jauh lebih lama untuk menurunkan kunci privat terkait, dibandingkan kunci yang terbongkar setelah transaksi disiarkan dan sebelum dikonfirmasi. + +### Kunci Publiknya Tersedia + +Komputer kuantum tidak bisa menurunkan kunci privat tanpa kunci publik yang terkait. + +Beberapa output Bitcoin mencatat kunci publik secara langsung. Yang lain awalnya hanya menyimpan hash dari kunci publik dan membongkar kunci lengkap saat pemiliknya membelanjakannya. Menggunakan ulang sebuah alamat bisa membiarkan dana baru dilindungi oleh kunci yang sudah terbongkar. + +Analisis Google tahun 2026 memperkirakan bahwa alamat dengan kunci publik yang terbongkar atau dipakai ulang menyimpan sekitar 6,7 juta BTC yang bisa menghadapi serangan at-rest dari CRQC di masa depan. + +Sekitar 2,3 juta BTC dalam analisis tersebut tidak aktif setidaknya selama lima tahun, sementara sekitar 1,7 juta BTC terkunci dalam output pay-to-public-key generasi awal. [Makalah Google](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf) menjelaskan asumsi dan metode di balik estimasi ini. + +Saldo-saldo ini menjadi rentan diserang ketika sebuah CRQC bisa menurunkan kunci privat terkait. Pemilik yang masih menguasai kunci mereka mungkin bisa memigrasikan dana mereka begitu chain sudah menyediakan jalur pengeluaran pasca-kuantum dan wallet serta layanan pendukung sudah mengadopsinya. Kunci yang hilang atau ditinggalkan menciptakan masalah yang lebih sulit karena mungkin tidak ada siapa pun yang bisa mengotorisasi migrasi. + +[Masalah migrasi Bitcoin juga merupakan masalah koordinasi](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization), karena tidak ada operator pusat yang bisa memastikan setiap pemilik, wallet, exchange, kustodian, dan operator node melakukan upgrade. + +### Migrasi Masih Belum Tuntas + +Menambahkan skema tanda tangan pasca-kuantum ke sebuah protokol hanyalah satu bagian dari migrasi. Node harus menegakkan aturan baru, wallet harus membuat dan mengelola kunci baru, serta exchange dan kustodian harus mendukung format transaksi baru. + +Aset yang ada tetap rentan sampai pengguna bisa memindahkannya lewat jalur pasca-kuantum yang aktif dan didukung. Sebuah proposal, makalah riset, testnet, atau fitur mainnet opsional menunjukkan kemajuan; itu tidak melindungi aset yang dikendalikan oleh kunci yang rentan. + +## Mengapa Migrasi Dimulai Bertahun-Tahun Sebelum Q-Day + +NIST merampungkan tiga standar pasca-kuantum pertamanya pada Agustus 2024: + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) menetapkan ML-KEM, metode berbasis lattice untuk membangun kunci bersama. +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) menetapkan ML-DSA, skema tanda tangan digital berbasis lattice. +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) menetapkan SLH-DSA, skema tanda tangan digital berbasis hash. + +Standar berbasis lattice menyediakan opsi utama yang efisien untuk pembentukan kunci dan tanda tangan. Standar berbasis hash memberi para pengembang opsi tanda tangan yang dibangun di atas asumsi matematis berbeda. + +Kami membahas Q-Day, migrasi pasca-kuantum, dan tekanan untuk memperbarui kriptografi yang rentan bersama Alex Pruden di QDay Podcast. + + + +Memilih sebuah algoritma memulai sebuah migrasi. Pada software biasa, pustaka kriptografi baru bisa sampai ke pengguna lewat update rutin, tetapi vendor tetap harus mengubah protokol, sertifikat, dukungan hardware, dan layanan yang bergantung padanya. + +NIST mencatat bahwa mengintegrasikan algoritma kriptografi standar ke seluruh sistem informasi [secara historis memakan waktu 10 hingga 20 tahun](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography). + +## Apa yang Dilakukan Pemerintah dan Badan Standar + +Pemerintah kini sudah memperlakukan migrasi pasca-kuantum sebagai program keamanan multi-tahun. + +| Organisasi | Persiapan yang sedang berjalan | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) merampungkan standar PQC pertamanya pada 2024 dan berencana menghapus algoritma yang rentan kuantum dari standarnya pada 2035, dengan sistem berisiko tinggi bermigrasi lebih dulu | +| Pemerintah federal Amerika Serikat | [Executive Order 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/) dan [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) mewajibkan sistem bernilai tinggi dan berdampak tinggi yang tercakup untuk memakai PQC bagi pembentukan kunci paling lambat 31 Desember 2030, dan bagi tanda tangan digital paling lambat 31 Desember 2031 | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) mengidentifikasi algoritma tahan-kuantum dan menetapkan transisi bertahap untuk National Security Systems | +| Uni Eropa | [Peta jalan UE 2025](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) menyerukan transisi yang terkoordinasi di seluruh Negara Anggota | +| ENISA | [Studi integrasi ENISA](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) membahas integrasi sistem pasca-kuantum ke dalam protokol yang sudah ada | + +Program-program ini dimulai bertahun-tahun sebelum CRQC mana pun dikonfirmasi karena setiap algoritma yang rentan harus lebih dulu ditemukan, diganti, diuji, dan dipensiunkan. + +## Cara Menilai Kesiapan Kuantum dalam Sebuah Blockchain + +[Rencana migrasi](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union) yang kredibel menghubungkan kriptografi yang saat ini dipakai dengan orang-orang dan sistem yang harus mengadopsi penggantinya. + +Lima pemeriksaan membuat penilaian ini praktis. + +1. **Identifikasi kriptografi yang dipakai.** Tentukan skema tanda tangan, metode pembentukan kunci, hash, sistem bukti, dan pustaka kriptografi mana yang melindungi chain saat ini. +2. **Petakan eksposur kunci publik.** Tentukan kapan kunci menjadi terlihat, apakah dipakai ulang, seberapa lama jendela serangan tetap terbuka, dan aset atau izin apa yang mereka kendalikan. +3. **Verifikasi apa yang benar-benar sudah diterapkan.** Pisahkan riset yang dipublikasikan, proposal, testnet, fitur mainnet opsional, dan perlindungan mainnet yang wajib. +4. **Telusuri jalur migrasi.** Periksa bagaimana node, wallet, exchange, kustodian, bridge, dan pengguna akan mengadopsi penggantinya. Rencana itu juga harus menjelaskan apa yang terjadi pada kepemilikan yang tidak aktif atau tidak bisa diakses. +5. **Periksa buktinya.** Cari spesifikasi, kode implementasi, audit independen, uji performa, dan instruksi pengguna yang jelas. Tanda tangan pasca-kuantum harus bekerja di seluruh lingkungan dalam kondisi yang realistis. + +Untuk menilai klaim ketahanan kuantum, identifikasi kriptografi yang masih dipakai, verifikasi bahwa jalur pasca-kuantum sudah aktif, dan pastikan akun serta aset yang ada bisa memakainya. + +## Periksa Risiko Kuantum Wallet Ethereum Anda + +Externally owned account Ethereum punya pola eksposur yang berbeda dari output Bitcoin, karena kunci publik bisa dipulihkan dari tanda tangan transaksi yang dipublikasikan. + +Ethereum juga punya [tanda tangan konsensus, komitmen ketersediaan data, dan sistem bukti](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure) yang memerlukan jalur migrasi pasca-kuantumnya sendiri. + +[Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) memakai data blockchain publik untuk menilai eksposur kunci publik dan sensitivitas saldo untuk sebuah alamat Ethereum atau nama ENS. Ini tidak pernah meminta kunci privat. diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/ja-JP/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/ja-JP/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4500327e --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/ja-JP/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "Q-Dayとは何か？" +metaTitle: "Q-Dayとは？暗号資産セキュリティへの意味" +description: "Q-Dayとは、量子コンピュータが広く使われる公開鍵暗号を破れるようになる境界点である。暗号資産にとっての脅威と、移行が早期に始まる理由を解説する。" +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "Q-Dayとは何か？" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Dayとは、十分な能力を持つ量子コンピュータが、実システムを守る公開鍵暗号を、偽造トランザクションやデータ漏えいなどのセキュリティ障害を引き起こすほど短時間で破れるようになる時点を指す。 + +RSAと楕円曲線暗号は、鍵交換とデジタル署名に広く使われている。 + +ブロックチェーンにとってのリスクは、量子能力、公開鍵の露出、そして移行状況の3つに左右される。以下のフレームワークは、これらの条件がどのように組み合わさって実際の攻撃になるかを説明する。 + +## Q-Dayはいつ来るのか + +Q-Dayに信頼できる日付を示せる人はいない。研究者は量子ハードウェア、誤り訂正、大規模計算における難問をまだ解決する必要がある。 + +専門家の予測もこの不確実性を反映している。[Global Risk Instituteの2025年調査](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/)では、暗号学的に重要な量子コンピュータ（CRQC）が10年以内に出現する可能性は十分にあり、15年以内なら可能性が高いとされた。この確率レンジは特定の年を示すことなく2030年代を指し示している。 + +Googleは自社のポスト量子暗号移行を完了する目標として2029年を発表した。これはCRQCの登場時期を予測したものではない。この目標は移行に必要な時間と、暗号解読の進歩が従来のリソース見積もりを引き下げる可能性の両方を反映している。[Googleは2026年3月に移行タイムラインを発表した](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/)。 + +長期間機密を保つ必要のあるデータは、Q-Day以前に保護しておく必要がある。 + +ハーベスト・ナウ、デクリプト・レイター攻撃では、攻撃者が今日暗号化された情報を収集し、将来の量子コンピュータが復号できるようになるまで保管する。長年にわたり機密を保つ必要のあるデータは、この戦略によってすでにリスクにさらされている。 + +![ハーベスト・ナウ、デクリプト・レイター：攻撃者は今日暗号化データを収集し、将来の量子コンピュータが暗号を破れるようになった時点で復号する](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +ハーベスト・ナウ、デクリプト・レイターは暗号化データに最も直接的に当てはまる。一部の公開ブロックチェーンには関連するリスクもある。オンチェーンで露出した公開鍵は、秘密鍵の導出に依然としてCRQCが必要であっても、将来の攻撃のために利用可能な状態のまま残る。 + +## Q-Dayには暗号学的に重要な量子コンピュータが必要 + +暗号学的に重要な量子コンピュータ（CRQC）とは、実システムで使われる暗号を破るのに十分な強力さと信頼性を備えた量子コンピュータのことである。 + +研究者はこの能力をいくつかの指標で評価する。信頼できる論理量子ビット数、誤り訂正のオーバーヘッド、必要な量子演算の回数、そして攻撃を完了するのに使える時間などだ。 + +今日の量子プロセッサは、慎重に選ばれた実験では古典コンピュータを上回ることができる。しかし、Shorのアルゴリズムを使ってブロックチェーンの秘密鍵を復元するのに必要な規模とフォールトトレランスには、まだ達していない。 + +Googleの2026年の論文は、secp256k1（Bitcoinをはじめとする多くのチェーンが使う楕円曲線）上でECDLP-256を解くために、将来の超伝導CRQCが必要とするリソースを見積もっている。示されたハードウェア前提の下では、1回の攻撃に必要な物理量子ビットは50万個未満、実行時間は数分と見積もられている。[Googleの研究がこれらの前提とリソース見積もりを説明している](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/)。 + +この見積もりは将来のマシンについてのものだ。ハードウェアが必要な規模に達する前に、アルゴリズムと誤り訂正の進歩がリソース見積もりを変える可能性があることを示している。 + +## Q-Dayは何を脅かすのか + +ブロックチェーンにとってのQ-Dayの主な懸念はShorのアルゴリズムだ。十分な能力を持つ量子コンピュータは、これを使ってRSAや楕円曲線システムを守る数学的問題を解ける可能性がある。[NISTはRSA、DSA、楕円曲線暗号を脆弱なクラスとして特定している](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals)。 + +公開鍵暗号には2つの主要な役割がある。 + +1. 信頼できないネットワーク上で2者が共有秘密を確立するのを助ける。 +2. 秘密鍵の保有者が、認可を証明するデジタル署名を生成できるようにする。 + +ブロックチェーンはデジタル署名に大きく依存している。Bitcoinは古い支払い経路にECDSA、TaprootにSchnorr署名を使う。他のチェーンはECDSAやEdDSAを含む楕円曲線署名方式の中から独自の選択をしている。攻撃者が露出した公開鍵から秘密鍵を導出できれば、ネットワークが有効と見なす可能性のある署名を生成できてしまう。 + +| 暗号機能 | 代表例 | 量子による影響 | 実際の影響 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 鍵確立と公開鍵暗号化 | RSA、ECDH | Shorのアルゴリズムが基礎となる数学的問題を脅かす | 過去に取得された暗号化記録が読み取り可能になる可能性がある | +| デジタル署名 | RSA署名、ECDSA、EdDSA | Shorのアルゴリズムが秘密鍵の復元を可能にしうる | 攻撃者がトランザクションや他の認可を偽造できる可能性がある | +| 対称暗号 | AES | Groverのアルゴリズムがブルートフォース探索のコストを下げる | 鍵長と実際の攻撃コストが残るセキュリティマージンを左右する | +| ハッシュ | SHA-256、SHA-3 | 量子探索が一部のセキュリティマージンを下げる | ハッシュ依存の機能には別途の評価が必要 | + +したがって、Bitcoinのデジタル署名とSHA-256は異なる量子脅威に直面している。 + +ECDSAは支払いを認可する。Shor攻撃が成功すれば、公開鍵から秘密鍵を復元し、トランザクションを偽造できる可能性がある。 + +SHA-256はマイニングや他のハッシュ依存機能を支えている。関連する量子脅威は[Groverのアルゴリズム](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking)であり、探索に対する汎用的な高速化を提供する。これは攻撃者に、秘密鍵を直接復元する同様の経路を与えるものではない。[NISTのポスト量子ガイダンス](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs)はこの2つの攻撃モデルを別々に扱っている。 + +## 量子能力がブロックチェーン攻撃に変わる仕組み + +![量子能力、公開鍵の露出、不完全な移行が組み合わさって現実的な量子リスクになる](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +ブロックチェーンは、ポスト量子移行が関連資産を保護する前に、能力のある量子コンピュータが露出した公開鍵を悪用できる状態になると脆弱になる。 + +### マシンが攻撃を完了できる + +攻撃者は、標的に対して利用可能な時間内に秘密鍵を導出するのに十分な信頼できる量子能力を必要とする。 + +利用可能な時間は標的によって異なる。何年もオンチェーンで見える公開鍵は、トランザクションがブロードキャストされてから確定するまでの間に露出する鍵よりも、対応する秘密鍵を導出する時間を攻撃者にはるかに多く与える。 + +### 公開鍵が入手可能である + +量子コンピュータは、対応する公開鍵なしに秘密鍵を導出することはできない。 + +一部のBitcoin出力は公開鍵を直接記録する。他は最初は公開鍵のハッシュのみを保存し、保有者が使うときに完全な鍵を露出させる。アドレスを再利用すると、すでに露出した鍵によって新しい資金が守られている状態になりかねない。 + +Googleの2026年の分析では、露出または再利用された公開鍵を持つアドレスに約670万BTCが存在し、将来のCRQCによる保管中資産への攻撃にさらされうると見積もられている。 + +この分析対象のうち約230万BTCは少なくとも5年間活動がなく、約170万BTCは初期のpay-to-public-key出力に固定されている。[Googleの論文](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf)がこれらの見積もりの前提と手法を説明している。 + +これらの残高は、CRQCが対応する秘密鍵を導出できるようになった時点で攻撃可能になる。まだ鍵を管理している保有者は、チェーンがポスト量子の支払い経路を展開し、対応するウォレットやサービスがそれを採用した後に、資金を移行できる可能性がある。失われた、または放棄された鍵は、移行を認可できる人がいないかもしれないという、より困難な問題を生む。 + +[Bitcoinの移行問題は調整問題でもある](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization)。中央の運営者が、すべての保有者、ウォレット、取引所、カストディアン、ノード運営者にアップグレードを保証させることはできないからだ。 + +### 移行は依然として不完全 + +プロトコルにポスト量子署名方式を追加することは、移行の一部にすぎない。ノードは新しいルールを強制し、ウォレットは新しい鍵を作成・管理し、取引所やカストディアンは新しいトランザクション形式をサポートしなければならない。 + +既存の資産は、ユーザーが有効化・サポートされたポスト量子経路を通じて移動できるようになるまで脆弱なままだ。提案、研究論文、テストネット、あるいはオプションのメインネット機能は進捗を示すが、脆弱な鍵に管理された資産を保護するものではない。 + +## なぜ移行はQ-Dayの何年も前から始まるのか + +NISTは2024年8月に最初の3つのポスト量子標準を確定した。 + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final)はML-KEMを規定する。共有鍵を確立するための格子ベースの方式だ。 +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final)はML-DSAを規定する。格子ベースのデジタル署名方式だ。 +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final)はSLH-DSAを規定する。ハッシュベースのデジタル署名方式だ。 + +格子ベースの標準は、鍵確立と署名のための効率的な主要選択肢を提供する。ハッシュベースの標準は、実装者に異なる数学的前提に基づく署名の選択肢を与える。 + +私たちはQ-Day、ポスト量子移行、そして脆弱な暗号をアップグレードする圧力について、QDay PodcastでAlex Prudenと語り合った。 + + + +アルゴリズムを選ぶことは移行の始まりを意味する。一般的なソフトウェアでは、新しい暗号ライブラリは通常のアップデートでユーザーに届くこともあるが、ベンダーはそれでもプロトコル、証明書、ハードウェアサポート、依存サービスを変更しなければならない。 + +NISTは、標準化された暗号アルゴリズムを情報システム全体に統合するのに[歴史的に10年から20年かかってきた](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography)と指摘している。 + +## 政府と標準化団体は何をしているか + +各国政府はすでにポスト量子移行を複数年にわたるセキュリティプログラムとして扱っている。 + +| 組織 | 進行中の準備 | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography)は2024年に最初のPQC標準を確定し、2035年までに量子に脆弱なアルゴリズムを標準から除去する計画で、高リスクシステムはより早く移行する | +| 米国連邦政府 | [大統領令14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/)と[OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf)は、対象となる高価値・高影響システムに対し、鍵確立で2030年12月31日まで、デジタル署名で2031年12月31日までにPQCを使うことを求めている | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/)は量子耐性アルゴリズムを特定し、National Security Systemsの段階的な移行を定めている | +| 欧州連合 | [2025年のEUロードマップ](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography)は加盟国間の協調的な移行を求めている | +| ENISA | [ENISAの統合研究](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study)は既存プロトコルへのポスト量子システムの統合を扱っている | + +これらのプログラムは、確認されたCRQCの何年も前から始まる。脆弱なアルゴリズムはすべて、まず発見され、置き換えられ、テストされ、廃止される必要があるからだ。 + +## ブロックチェーンの量子対応度を評価する方法 + +信頼できる[移行計画](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union)は、現在使われている暗号を、その代替を採用しなければならない人々やシステムと結びつける。 + +この評価を実践的にする5つのチェックがある。 + +1. **使用中の暗号を特定する。** どの署名方式、鍵確立方式、ハッシュ、証明システム、暗号ライブラリが今日のチェーンを守っているかを判断する。 +2. **公開鍵の露出をマッピングする。** 鍵がいつ可視化されるか、再利用されているか、攻撃可能な期間がどれだけ続くか、そしてどの資産や権限を制御しているかを確認する。 +3. **実際に展開されたものを検証する。** 公表された研究、提案、テストネット、オプションのメインネット機能、そして必須のメインネット保護を区別する。 +4. **移行経路をたどる。** ノード、ウォレット、取引所、カストディアン、ブリッジ、ユーザーがどのように代替を採用するかを確認する。計画は非活動または利用不能な保有資産がどうなるかも説明すべきだ。 +5. **証拠を精査する。** 仕様書、実装コード、独立監査、性能テスト、明確な利用者向け手順を探す。ポスト量子署名は、現実的な条件下で環境全体を通じて機能しなければならない。 + +量子耐性の主張を評価するには、まだ使われている暗号を特定し、ポスト量子経路が有効であることを確認し、既存のアカウントと資産がそれを使えることを確認する。 + +## Ethereumウォレットの量子リスクを確認する + +Ethereumのexternally owned accountは、公開されたトランザクション署名から公開鍵を復元できるため、Bitcoinの出力とは異なる露出パターンを持つ。 + +Ethereumにはまた、独自のポスト量子移行経路を必要とする[コンセンサス署名、データ可用性のコミットメント、証明システム](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure)がある。 + +[Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/)は、EthereumアドレスまたはENS名について公開鍵の露出と残高の機微性を評価するために、公開ブロックチェーンデータを使う。秘密鍵を求めることは決してない。 diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/ko-KR/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/ko-KR/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b1494659 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/ko-KR/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "Q-Day란 무엇인가?" +metaTitle: "Q-Day란? 암호화폐 보안에 미치는 의미" +description: "Q-Day는 양자 컴퓨터가 널리 쓰이는 공개키 암호를 깰 수 있게 되는 시점이다. 암호화폐에 어떤 위협이 되는지, 왜 마이그레이션이 일찍 시작되는지 알아본다." +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "Q-Day란 무엇인가?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day는 충분히 강력한 양자 컴퓨터가 실제 시스템을 보호하는 공개키 암호를, 위조된 거래나 데이터 유출 같은 보안 실패를 일으킬 만큼 빠르게 깰 수 있게 되는 시점이다. + +RSA와 타원곡선 암호는 키 교환과 디지털 서명에 널리 쓰인다. + +블록체인의 경우 위험은 양자 능력, 공개키 노출, 마이그레이션 상태에 달려 있다. 아래 프레임워크는 이 세 조건이 어떻게 결합해 실제 공격이 되는지 설명한다. + +## Q-Day는 언제 오는가 + +누구도 Q-Day에 대해 믿을 만한 날짜를 제시할 수 없다. 연구자들은 여전히 양자 하드웨어, 오류 정정, 대규모 연산에서 어려운 문제를 풀어야 한다. + +전문가들의 예측도 이러한 불확실성을 반영한다. [Global Risk Institute의 2025년 설문조사](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/)는 암호학적으로 유의미한 양자 컴퓨터(CRQC)가 10년 내에 등장할 가능성이 꽤 있고, 15년 내에는 가능성이 높다고 봤다. 이러한 확률 범위는 특정 연도를 지목하지 않은 채 2030년대를 가리킨다. + +구글은 자사의 포스트양자 암호 마이그레이션을 2029년까지 완료하겠다는 목표를 발표했다. 이는 CRQC가 언제 등장할지 예측한 것이 아니다. 이 목표는 마이그레이션에 필요한 시간과, 암호해독 기술의 발전이 이전의 자원 추정치를 낮출 수 있다는 가능성을 함께 반영한 것이다. [구글은 2026년 3월 마이그레이션 일정을 발표했다](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). + +오래 기밀을 유지해야 하는 데이터는 Q-Day 이전에 보호가 필요하다. + +하베스트-나우, 디크립트-레이터 공격에서 공격자는 오늘 암호화된 정보를 수집해 두었다가, 미래의 양자 컴퓨터가 이를 복호화할 수 있을 때까지 저장한다. 오랫동안 기밀을 유지해야 하는 데이터는 이 전략만으로도 이미 위험에 노출돼 있다. + +![하베스트-나우, 디크립트-레이터: 공격자는 오늘 암호화된 데이터를 수집하고, 미래의 양자 컴퓨터가 암호를 깰 수 있게 되면 이를 복호화한다](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +하베스트-나우, 디크립트-레이터는 암호화된 데이터에 가장 직접적으로 적용된다. 일부 공개 블록체인은 관련된 위험에도 노출돼 있다. 온체인에 노출된 공개키는, 개인키를 유도하는 데 여전히 CRQC가 필요하더라도, 미래의 공격을 위해 계속 이용 가능한 상태로 남는다. + +## Q-Day에는 암호학적으로 유의미한 양자 컴퓨터가 필요하다 + +암호학적으로 유의미한 양자 컴퓨터, 즉 CRQC는 실제 시스템에서 쓰이는 암호를 깰 만큼 강력하고 신뢰할 수 있는 양자 컴퓨터를 말한다. + +연구자들은 이 능력을 여러 지표로 평가한다. 신뢰할 수 있는 논리 큐비트 수, 오류 정정 오버헤드, 필요한 양자 연산 횟수, 공격을 완료하는 데 쓸 수 있는 시간 등이다. + +오늘날의 양자 프로세서는 신중하게 선택된 실험에서는 고전 컴퓨터를 능가할 수 있다. 하지만 Shor 알고리즘을 이용해 블록체인 개인키를 복원할 만큼의 규모와 결함 허용성에는 아직 도달하지 못했다. + +구글의 2026년 논문은 secp256k1(비트코인을 비롯한 많은 체인이 쓰는 타원곡선)에서 ECDLP-256을 풀기 위해 미래의 초전도 CRQC가 필요로 할 자원을 추정한다. 제시된 하드웨어 전제 하에서, 이 논문은 한 번의 공격에 물리적 큐비트 50만 개 미만, 실행 시간 몇 분이 필요하다고 추정한다. [구글의 연구는 이러한 전제와 자원 추정치를 설명한다](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/). + +이 추정치는 미래의 기계를 그린 것이다. 하드웨어가 필요한 규모에 도달하기 전에 알고리즘과 오류 정정의 발전이 자원 추정치를 바꿀 수 있음을 보여준다. + +## Q-Day는 무엇을 위협하는가 + +블록체인에 대한 Q-Day의 주된 우려는 Shor 알고리즘이다. 충분히 강력한 양자 컴퓨터는 이를 이용해 RSA와 타원곡선 시스템을 보호하는 수학적 문제를 풀 수 있다. [NIST는 RSA, DSA, 타원곡선 암호를 취약한 부류로 지목한다](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals). + +공개키 암호에는 두 가지 주요 역할이 있다. + +1. 신뢰할 수 없는 네트워크를 통해 두 당사자가 공유 비밀을 확립하도록 돕는다. +2. 개인키 소유자가 권한을 증명하는 디지털 서명을 만들 수 있게 한다. + +블록체인은 디지털 서명에 크게 의존한다. 비트코인은 오래된 지출 경로에는 ECDSA를, Taproot에는 Schnorr 서명을 쓴다. 다른 체인들은 ECDSA와 EdDSA를 포함한 타원곡선 서명 방식 중에서 각자 선택한다. 공격자가 노출된 공개키에서 개인키를 유도할 수 있다면, 네트워크가 유효하다고 받아들일 수 있는 서명을 만들어낼 수 있다. + +| 암호 기능 | 대표 예시 | 양자 영향 | 실질적 함의 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 키 확립 및 공개키 암호화 | RSA, ECDH | Shor 알고리즘이 기반 수학 문제를 위협한다 | 이전에 수집된 암호화 기록이 읽힐 수 있게 될 수 있다 | +| 디지털 서명 | RSA 서명, ECDSA, EdDSA | Shor 알고리즘이 개인키 복원을 가능하게 할 수 있다 | 공격자가 거래나 다른 승인을 위조할 수 있다 | +| 대칭 암호화 | AES | Grover 알고리즘이 무차별 대입 탐색 비용을 낮춘다 | 키 길이와 실제 공격 비용이 남은 보안 여유를 결정한다 | +| 해싱 | SHA-256, SHA-3 | 양자 탐색이 일부 보안 여유를 줄인다 | 해시 의존 기능은 별도 평가가 필요하다 | + +따라서 비트코인의 디지털 서명과 SHA-256은 서로 다른 양자 위협에 직면한다. + +ECDSA는 지출을 승인한다. Shor 공격이 성공하면 공개키에서 개인키를 복원해 위조 거래를 가능하게 할 수 있다. + +SHA-256은 채굴과 그 외 해시 의존 기능을 뒷받침한다. 관련된 양자 위협은 탐색에 범용적인 속도 향상을 제공하는 [Grover 알고리즘](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking)이다. 이는 공격자에게 동일한 직접적 개인키 복원 경로를 주지는 않는다. [NIST의 포스트양자 지침](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs)은 이 두 공격 모델을 별도로 다룬다. + +## 양자 능력이 블록체인 공격으로 이어지는 과정 + +![양자 능력, 공개키 노출, 불완전한 마이그레이션이 결합해 실질적인 양자 위험이 된다](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +블록체인은 포스트양자 마이그레이션이 관련 자산을 보호하기 전에, 유능한 양자 컴퓨터가 노출된 공개키를 악용할 수 있게 되면 취약해진다. + +### 기계가 공격을 완료할 수 있다 + +공격자는 대상에 허용된 시간 내에 개인키를 유도할 만큼 충분히 신뢰할 수 있는 양자 능력이 필요하다. + +허용된 시간은 대상에 따라 다르다. 몇 년 동안 온체인에 노출된 공개키는, 거래가 브로드캐스트된 후 확정되기 전에 드러나는 키보다, 공격자에게 해당 개인키를 유도할 시간을 훨씬 더 많이 준다. + +### 공개키를 손에 넣을 수 있다 + +양자 컴퓨터는 대응하는 공개키 없이는 개인키를 유도할 수 없다. + +일부 비트코인 출력은 공개키를 직접 기록한다. 다른 출력은 처음에는 공개키의 해시만 저장하고, 소유자가 지출할 때 완전한 키를 노출한다. 주소를 재사용하면 이미 노출된 키로 보호되는 새 자금이 생길 수 있다. + +구글의 2026년 분석은 노출되었거나 재사용된 공개키를 가진 주소에 약 670만 BTC가 있으며, 이는 미래의 CRQC로부터 보관 중 자산에 대한 공격에 노출될 수 있다고 추정한다. + +이 분석에서 약 230만 BTC는 최소 5년간 활동이 없었고, 약 170만 BTC는 초기의 pay-to-public-key 출력에 잠겨 있다. [구글의 논문](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf)이 이러한 추정치의 전제와 방법을 설명한다. + +이 잔액들은 CRQC가 대응하는 개인키를 유도할 수 있게 되면 공격 대상이 된다. 여전히 자신의 키를 통제하고 있는 소유자는, 체인이 포스트양자 지출 경로를 배포하고 이를 지원하는 지갑과 서비스가 이를 채택한 뒤에 자금을 마이그레이션할 수 있을 것이다. 분실되거나 방치된 키는, 마이그레이션을 승인할 사람이 아무도 없을 수 있다는 더 어려운 문제를 만든다. + +[비트코인의 마이그레이션 문제는 조정 문제이기도 하다](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization). 중앙 운영자가 모든 보유자, 지갑, 거래소, 커스터디언, 노드 운영자가 업그레이드하도록 보장할 수 없기 때문이다. + +### 마이그레이션은 여전히 미완성이다 + +프로토콜에 포스트양자 서명 방식을 추가하는 것은 마이그레이션의 한 부분일 뿐이다. 노드는 새 규칙을 강제해야 하고, 지갑은 새 키를 생성하고 관리해야 하며, 거래소와 커스터디언은 새 거래 형식을 지원해야 한다. + +기존 자산은 사용자가 활성화되고 지원되는 포스트양자 경로를 통해 이동할 수 있을 때까지 취약한 상태로 남는다. 제안, 연구 논문, 테스트넷, 선택적 메인넷 기능은 진전을 보여주지만, 취약한 키로 통제되는 자산을 보호하지는 못한다. + +## 마이그레이션이 Q-Day보다 몇 년이나 먼저 시작되는 이유 + +NIST는 2024년 8월 첫 세 가지 포스트양자 표준을 확정했다. + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final)은 공유 키를 확립하기 위한 격자 기반 방식인 ML-KEM을 규정한다. +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final)는 격자 기반 디지털 서명 방식인 ML-DSA를 규정한다. +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final)는 해시 기반 디지털 서명 방식인 SLH-DSA를 규정한다. + +격자 기반 표준은 키 확립과 서명을 위한 효율적인 주요 선택지를 제공한다. 해시 기반 표준은 구현자에게 다른 수학적 전제 위에 세워진 서명 선택지를 제공한다. + +우리는 Q-Day, 포스트양자 마이그레이션, 그리고 취약한 암호를 업그레이드해야 한다는 압박에 대해 QDay Podcast에서 Alex Pruden과 이야기를 나눴다. + + + +알고리즘을 선택하는 것은 마이그레이션의 시작이다. 일반적인 소프트웨어에서는 새 암호 라이브러리가 일상적인 업데이트로 사용자에게 전달될 수도 있지만, 벤더는 그래도 프로토콜, 인증서, 하드웨어 지원, 의존 서비스를 변경해야 한다. + +NIST는 표준화된 암호 알고리즘을 정보 시스템 전반에 통합하는 데 [역사적으로 10년에서 20년이 걸렸다](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography)고 밝혔다. + +## 정부와 표준화 기구는 무엇을 하고 있는가 + +각국 정부는 이미 포스트양자 마이그레이션을 다년간에 걸친 보안 프로그램으로 다루고 있다. + +| 기관 | 진행 중인 준비 | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography)는 2024년 첫 PQC 표준을 확정했고, 2035년까지 양자에 취약한 알고리즘을 표준에서 제거할 계획이며, 고위험 시스템은 더 일찍 이전한다 | +| 미국 연방 정부 | [행정명령 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/)와 [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf)는 해당되는 고가치·고영향 시스템에 대해 키 확립은 2030년 12월 31일까지, 디지털 서명은 2031년 12월 31일까지 PQC를 사용하도록 요구한다 | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/)은 양자 저항 알고리즘을 지정하고 National Security Systems를 위한 단계적 전환을 규정한다 | +| 유럽연합 | [2025년 EU 로드맵](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography)은 회원국 간 조율된 전환을 촉구한다 | +| ENISA | [ENISA의 통합 연구](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study)는 기존 프로토콜에 포스트양자 시스템을 통합하는 문제를 다룬다 | + +이러한 프로그램들은 확인된 CRQC보다 몇 년이나 먼저 시작된다. 취약한 알고리즘은 모두 먼저 발견되고, 대체되고, 테스트되고, 폐기되어야 하기 때문이다. + +## 블록체인의 양자 대비 수준을 평가하는 방법 + +신뢰할 수 있는 [마이그레이션 계획](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union)은 현재 쓰이는 암호를, 그 대체를 채택해야 하는 사람들과 시스템에 연결한다. + +이 평가를 실용적으로 만드는 다섯 가지 점검이 있다. + +1. **사용 중인 암호를 파악한다.** 어떤 서명 방식, 키 확립 방법, 해시, 증명 시스템, 암호 라이브러리가 오늘날 체인을 보호하는지 확인한다. +2. **공개키 노출을 매핑한다.** 키가 언제 노출되는지, 재사용되는지, 공격 가능 창이 얼마나 오래 열려 있는지, 어떤 자산이나 권한을 통제하는지 파악한다. +3. **실제로 배포된 것을 검증한다.** 발표된 연구, 제안, 테스트넷, 선택적 메인넷 기능, 필수적인 메인넷 보호를 구분한다. +4. **마이그레이션 경로를 추적한다.** 노드, 지갑, 거래소, 커스터디언, 브리지, 사용자가 어떻게 대체를 채택할지 확인한다. 계획에는 비활성 상태이거나 접근 불가능한 보유 자산에 어떤 일이 생기는지도 설명돼 있어야 한다. +5. **증거를 살펴본다.** 사양, 구현 코드, 독립 감사, 성능 테스트, 명확한 사용자 안내를 찾는다. 포스트양자 서명은 현실적인 조건에서 전체 환경에 걸쳐 작동해야 한다. + +양자 저항 주장을 평가하려면, 아직 쓰이고 있는 암호를 파악하고, 포스트양자 경로가 활성화돼 있는지 확인하며, 기존 계정과 자산이 이를 사용할 수 있는지 확인해야 한다. + +## 이더리움 지갑의 양자 위험 확인하기 + +이더리움의 외부 소유 계정(EOA)은 공개된 거래 서명에서 공개키를 복원할 수 있기 때문에, 비트코인 출력과는 다른 노출 패턴을 가진다. + +이더리움에는 또한 자체적인 포스트양자 마이그레이션 경로가 필요한 [합의 서명, 데이터 가용성 커밋먼트, 증명 시스템](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure)이 있다. + +[Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/)는 이더리움 주소나 ENS 이름에 대한 공개키 노출과 잔액 민감도를 평가하기 위해 공개 블록체인 데이터를 사용한다. 개인키를 요청하는 일은 결코 없다. diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/ru-RU/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/ru-RU/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..97a732cb --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/ru-RU/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "Что такое Q-Day?" +metaTitle: "Что такое Q-Day? Значение для криптобезопасности" +description: "Q-Day — момент, когда квантовые компьютеры взломают криптографию с открытым ключом. Чем это грозит крипте и почему миграция начинается заранее." +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "Что такое Q-Day?" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day — это момент, когда достаточно мощный квантовый компьютер сможет взломать криптографию с открытым ключом, защищающую реальные системы, достаточно быстро, чтобы вызвать сбои безопасности, такие как подделанные транзакции или раскрытые данные. + +RSA и криптография на эллиптических кривых широко применяются для обмена ключами и цифровых подписей. + +Для блокчейнов риск зависит от квантовых возможностей, раскрытия открытых ключей и хода миграции. Ниже описано, как эти условия складываются в практическую атаку. + +## Когда наступит Q-Day? + +Никто не может назвать достоверную дату Q-Day. Исследователям ещё предстоит решить сложные задачи в области квантового оборудования, коррекции ошибок и масштабных вычислений. + +Прогнозы экспертов отражают эту неопределённость. [Опрос Global Risk Institute за 2025 год](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/) показал, что криптографически значимый квантовый компьютер (CRQC) вполне возможен в течение десяти лет и вероятен в течение пятнадцати. Эти диапазоны вероятности указывают на 2030-е годы, не называя конкретного года. + +Google объявила о цели завершить собственную миграцию на постквантовую криптографию к 2029 году. Это не прогноз появления CRQC. Цель отражает время, необходимое для миграции, и возможность того, что прогресс в криптоанализе снизит прежние оценки требуемых ресурсов. [Google объявила план миграции в марте 2026 года](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/). + +Долгоживущие конфиденциальные данные нуждаются в защите ещё до Q-Day. + +При атаке «собрать сейчас, расшифровать потом» злоумышленник сегодня собирает зашифрованную информацию и хранит её, пока будущий квантовый компьютер не сможет её расшифровать. Данные, которые должны оставаться конфиденциальными многие годы, уже подвергаются риску из-за этой стратегии. + +![«Собрать сейчас, расшифровать потом»: злоумышленник собирает зашифрованные данные сегодня и расшифровывает их, когда будущий квантовый компьютер сможет взломать шифрование](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +Стратегия «собрать сейчас, расшифровать потом» напрямую применима к зашифрованным данным. Некоторые публичные блокчейны сталкиваются со смежным риском: открытые ключи, раскрытые в сети, остаются доступными для будущей атаки, даже если для получения приватного ключа по-прежнему требуется CRQC. + +## Q-Day требует криптографически значимого квантового компьютера + +Криптографически значимый квантовый компьютер, или CRQC, — это квантовый компьютер, достаточно мощный и надёжный, чтобы взламывать криптографию, используемую в реальных системах. + +Исследователи оценивают эту способность по нескольким показателям: числу надёжных логических кубитов, накладным расходам на коррекцию ошибок, числу необходимых квантовых операций и времени, доступному для завершения атаки. + +Сегодняшние квантовые процессоры способны превзойти классические компьютеры в тщательно подобранных экспериментах. Им по-прежнему не хватает масштаба и устойчивости к сбоям, необходимых для восстановления приватного ключа блокчейна с помощью алгоритма Шора. + +В статье Google 2026 года оцениваются ресурсы, которые могут потребоваться будущему сверхпроводниковому CRQC для решения ECDLP-256 на кривой secp256k1 — эллиптической кривой, используемой Bitcoin и многими другими сетями. При заявленных предположениях об оборудовании статья оценивает менее 500 000 физических кубитов и время выполнения атаки в минуты. [Исследование Google объясняет эти предположения и оценки ресурсов](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/). + +Эта оценка описывает будущую машину. Она показывает, что прогресс в алгоритмах и коррекции ошибок может изменить оценки ресурсов ещё до того, как оборудование достигнет требуемого масштаба. + +## Чему угрожает Q-Day? + +Главная угроза Q-Day для блокчейнов — алгоритм Шора. Достаточно мощный квантовый компьютер мог бы использовать его для решения математических задач, защищающих RSA и системы на эллиптических кривых. [NIST относит RSA, DSA и криптографию на эллиптических кривых к уязвимым классам](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals). + +У криптографии с открытым ключом две основные задачи: + +1. Она помогает двум сторонам установить общий секрет через недоверенную сеть. +2. Она позволяет владельцу приватного ключа создавать цифровую подпись, подтверждающую полномочия. + +Блокчейны сильно зависят от цифровых подписей. Bitcoin использует ECDSA для старых путей траты и подписи Schnorr для Taproot. Другие сети делают собственный выбор среди схем подписи на эллиптических кривых, включая ECDSA и EdDSA. Если злоумышленник сможет вывести приватный ключ из раскрытого открытого ключа, он сможет создать подпись, которую сеть может принять как действительную. + +| Криптографическая функция | Распространённые примеры | Квантовый эффект | Практическое следствие | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Установление ключей и шифрование с открытым ключом | RSA, ECDH | Алгоритм Шора угрожает лежащим в основе математическим задачам | Ранее перехваченные зашифрованные записи могут стать читаемыми | +| Цифровые подписи | Подписи RSA, ECDSA, EdDSA | Алгоритм Шора может позволить восстановить приватный ключ | Злоумышленник может подделать транзакции или другие авторизации | +| Симметричное шифрование | AES | Алгоритм Гровера снижает стоимость перебора | Длина ключа и практическая стоимость атаки определяют оставшийся запас безопасности | +| Хеширование | SHA-256, SHA-3 | Квантовый поиск снижает некоторые запасы безопасности | Функции, зависящие от хешей, требуют отдельной оценки | + +Поэтому цифровые подписи Bitcoin и SHA-256 сталкиваются с разными квантовыми угрозами. + +ECDSA авторизует траты. Успешная атака Шора могла бы восстановить приватный ключ из открытого и позволить подделывать транзакции. + +SHA-256 поддерживает майнинг и другие функции, зависящие от хешей. Соответствующая квантовая угроза — [алгоритм Гровера](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking), который даёт общее ускорение поиска. Это не даёт злоумышленнику такого же прямого пути к восстановлению приватного ключа. [Постквантовые рекомендации NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs) рассматривают эти две модели атак отдельно. + +## Как квантовые возможности превращаются в атаку на блокчейн + +![Квантовые возможности, раскрытие открытых ключей и незавершённая миграция вместе образуют практический квантовый риск](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +Блокчейн становится уязвимым, когда мощный квантовый компьютер может использовать раскрытый открытый ключ до того, как постквантовая миграция защитит соответствующие активы. + +### Машина способна завершить атаку + +Злоумышленнику нужно достаточно надёжных квантовых мощностей, чтобы вывести приватный ключ в пределах времени, доступного для цели. + +Доступное время зависит от цели. Открытый ключ, видимый в сети годами, даёт злоумышленнику намного больше времени на вывод соответствующего приватного ключа, чем ключ, раскрытый после трансляции транзакции и до её подтверждения. + +### Открытый ключ доступен + +Квантовый компьютер не может вывести приватный ключ без соответствующего открытого ключа. + +Некоторые выходы Bitcoin напрямую содержат открытый ключ. Другие изначально хранят лишь хеш открытого ключа и раскрывают полный ключ при трате владельцем. Повторное использование адреса может привести к тому, что новые средства окажутся защищены ключом, который уже был раскрыт. + +Анализ Google за 2026 год оценивает, что адреса с раскрытыми или повторно использованными открытыми ключами содержат примерно 6,7 миллиона BTC, которые могут подвергнуться атаке на «спящие» средства со стороны будущего CRQC. + +Около 2,3 миллиона BTC из этого анализа были неактивны как минимум пять лет, тогда как примерно 1,7 миллиона BTC заблокированы в ранних выходах pay-to-public-key. [Статья Google](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf) объясняет предположения и метод, лежащие в основе этих оценок. + +Эти остатки становятся атакуемыми, как только CRQC сможет вывести соответствующие приватные ключи. Владельцы, всё ещё контролирующие свои ключи, смогут мигрировать средства после того, как сеть развернёт постквантовый путь трат, а поддерживающие кошельки и сервисы примут его. Утерянные или заброшенные ключи создают более сложную проблему, потому что может не оказаться никого, кто мог бы авторизовать миграцию. + +[Проблема миграции Bitcoin — это ещё и проблема координации](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization), поскольку ни один центральный оператор не может гарантировать, что каждый владелец, кошелёк, биржа, кастодиан и оператор узла обновится. + +### Миграция остаётся незавершённой + +Добавление постквантовой схемы подписи в протокол — лишь часть миграции. Узлы должны применять новые правила, кошельки должны создавать и управлять новыми ключами, а биржи и кастодианы должны поддерживать новый формат транзакций. + +Существующие активы остаются уязвимыми, пока пользователи не смогут перевести их через активированный, поддерживаемый постквантовый путь. Предложение, исследовательская статья, тестовая сеть или опциональная функция основной сети показывают прогресс, но не защищают активы, контролируемые уязвимыми ключами. + +## Почему миграция начинается за годы до Q-Day + +В августе 2024 года NIST утвердил первые три постквантовых стандарта: + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) определяет ML-KEM, метод на основе решёток для установления общих ключей. +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) определяет ML-DSA, схему цифровой подписи на основе решёток. +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) определяет SLH-DSA, схему цифровой подписи на основе хешей. + +Стандарты на основе решёток предоставляют эффективные основные варианты для установления ключей и подписей. Стандарт на основе хешей даёт разработчикам вариант подписи, построенный на иных математических предположениях. + +Мы обсудили Q-Day, постквантовую миграцию и давление в пользу обновления уязвимой криптографии с Алексом Пруденом в подкасте QDay. + + + +Выбор алгоритма запускает миграцию. В обычном программном обеспечении новая криптографическая библиотека может дойти до пользователей через рутинное обновление, но поставщику всё равно приходится менять протоколы, сертификаты, поддержку оборудования и зависимые сервисы. + +NIST отмечает, что интеграция стандартизированного криптографического алгоритма во все информационные системы [исторически занимала от 10 до 20 лет](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography). + +## Что делают правительства и органы стандартизации + +Правительства уже рассматривают постквантовую миграцию как многолетнюю программу безопасности. + +| Организация | Ведущаяся подготовка | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) утвердил свои первые стандарты PQC в 2024 году и планирует убрать квантово-уязвимые алгоритмы из своих стандартов к 2035 году, при этом высокорисковые системы переходят раньше | +| Федеральное правительство США | [Указ 14412](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/) и [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) требуют, чтобы охваченные высокоценные и высоковлиятельные системы использовали PQC для установления ключей к 31 декабря 2030 года и для цифровых подписей к 31 декабря 2031 года | +| АНБ | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) определяет квантово-устойчивые алгоритмы и задаёт поэтапный переход для National Security Systems | +| Евросоюз | [Дорожная карта ЕС на 2025 год](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) призывает к скоординированному переходу между странами-членами | +| ENISA | [Исследование по интеграции ENISA](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) рассматривает интеграцию постквантовых систем в существующие протоколы | + +Эти программы начинаются за годы до появления подтверждённого CRQC, потому что каждый уязвимый алгоритм сначала нужно найти, заменить, протестировать и вывести из эксплуатации. + +## Как оценить квантовую готовность блокчейна + +Убедительный [план миграции](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union) связывает используемую сегодня криптографию с людьми и системами, которым предстоит принять её замену. + +Пять проверок делают такую оценку практичной. + +1. **Определить используемую криптографию.** Установить, какие схемы подписи, методы установления ключей, хеши, системы доказательств и криптографические библиотеки защищают сеть сегодня. +2. **Отобразить раскрытие открытых ключей.** Установить, когда ключи становятся видимыми, повторно ли они используются, как долго остаётся открытым окно атаки и какие активы или права они контролируют. +3. **Проверить, что реально развёрнуто.** Отделить опубликованные исследования, предложения, тестовые сети, опциональные функции основной сети от обязательной защиты основной сети. +4. **Проследить путь миграции.** Проверить, как узлы, кошельки, биржи, кастодианы, мосты и пользователи примут замену. План также должен объяснять, что происходит с неактивными или недоступными активами. +5. **Изучить доказательства.** Искать спецификации, код реализации, независимые аудиты, тесты производительности и понятные инструкции для пользователей. Постквантовые подписи должны работать во всей среде в реалистичных условиях. + +Чтобы оценить заявление о квантовой устойчивости, определите, какая криптография всё ещё используется, убедитесь, что постквантовый путь активен, и подтвердите, что существующие аккаунты и активы могут его использовать. + +## Проверьте квантовый риск своего кошелька Ethereum + +Внешние учётные записи (EOA) Ethereum имеют иной характер раскрытия по сравнению с выходами Bitcoin, поскольку открытый ключ можно восстановить из опубликованной подписи транзакции. + +У Ethereum также есть [консенсусные подписи, обязательства по доступности данных и системы доказательств](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure), которым нужен собственный путь постквантовой миграции. + +[Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) использует публичные данные блокчейна для оценки раскрытия открытого ключа и чувствительности баланса для адреса Ethereum или имени ENS. Он никогда не запрашивает приватные ключи. diff --git a/website/src/contents/blogs/zh-CN/what-is-q-day.mdx b/website/src/contents/blogs/zh-CN/what-is-q-day.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ff80ed43 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/contents/blogs/zh-CN/what-is-q-day.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,168 @@ +--- +published: false +title: "什么是 Q-Day？" +metaTitle: "什么是 Q-Day？对加密安全意味着什么" +description: "Q-Day 是量子计算机足以破解广泛使用的公钥密码学的临界点。了解它对加密货币意味着哪些具体威胁，以及为什么相关迁移工作必须提前多年开始准备。" +pubDate: "2026-09-07" +heroImage: "/blog/covers/what-is-q-day.webp" +heroAlt: "什么是 Q-Day？" +featured: false +author: christopher-smith +tags: + [ + "q-day", + "post-quantum", + "quantum-computing", + "cryptography", + "bitcoin", + "nist", + "migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later", + ] +--- + +import TwitterEmbed from "@/components/features/blog/TwitterEmbed.astro"; + +Q-Day 是指一台足够强大的量子计算机能够快速破解保护真实系统的公钥密码学，快到足以造成伪造交易或数据泄露等安全事故的那个时间点。 + +RSA 和椭圆曲线密码学被广泛用于密钥交换和数字签名。 + +对区块链而言，风险取决于量子能力、公钥暴露程度和迁移进度这三者。下面的框架解释了这些条件如何组合成一次实际的攻击。 + +## Q-Day 何时到来？ + +没有人能给出 Q-Day 的可信日期。研究人员仍需在量子硬件、纠错和大规模计算方面解决难题。 + +专家的预测也反映了这种不确定性。[Global Risk Institute 的 2025 年调查](https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/)发现，具备密码学相关能力的量子计算机（CRQC）在十年内相当可能出现，十五年内则更为可能。这些概率区间指向 2030 年代，但并未指明具体年份。 + +谷歌宣布了在 2029 年完成自身后量子密码迁移的目标。这并非对 CRQC 出现时间的预测。该目标既反映了迁移所需的时间，也反映了密码分析进展可能降低此前资源估算的可能性。[谷歌于 2026 年 3 月公布了迁移时间表](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-security/cryptography-migration-timeline/)。 + +需要长期保密的数据必须在 Q-Day 之前得到保护。 + +在“先收集、后解密”攻击中，攻击者今天收集加密信息并将其存储，直到未来的量子计算机能够将其解密。需要多年保密的数据，已经因这种策略而处于风险之中。 + +![先收集、后解密：攻击者今天收集加密数据，一旦未来的量子计算机能够破解加密就将其解密](/blog/assets/harvest-now-decrypt-later.webp) + +“先收集、后解密”最直接适用于加密数据。一些公有区块链也面临相关风险：链上已暴露的公钥仍可供未来攻击使用，即便推导私钥仍然需要 CRQC。 + +## Q-Day 需要具备密码学相关能力的量子计算机 + +具备密码学相关能力的量子计算机，即 CRQC，是指强大且可靠到足以破解真实系统所用密码学的量子计算机。 + +研究人员通过多项指标评估这种能力，包括可靠逻辑量子比特数、纠错开销、所需量子操作次数，以及完成攻击可用的时间。 + +今天的量子处理器已能在精心挑选的实验中超越经典计算机，但仍未达到用 Shor 算法恢复区块链私钥所需的规模和容错能力。 + +谷歌 2026 年的论文估算了未来超导 CRQC 在 secp256k1（比特币及许多其他链使用的椭圆曲线）上求解 ECDLP-256 所需的资源。在其给定的硬件假设下，论文估计单次攻击所需物理量子比特不足 50 万个，运行时间为数分钟。[谷歌的研究说明了这些假设和资源估算](https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/)。 + +这一估算描述的是一台未来的机器。它表明，在硬件达到所需规模之前，算法和纠错方面的进展就可能改变资源估算。 + +## Q-Day 会威胁什么？ + +对区块链而言，Q-Day 的主要担忧是 Shor 算法。一台足够强大的量子计算机可以用它求解保护 RSA 和椭圆曲线系统的数学难题。[NIST 将 RSA、DSA 和椭圆曲线密码学列为易受攻击的类别](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Standardization/Call-for-Proposals)。 + +公钥密码学有两大主要作用： + +1. 帮助双方在不受信任的网络上建立共享密钥。 +2. 让私钥持有者能够生成证明授权的数字签名。 + +区块链高度依赖数字签名。比特币在较旧的花费路径中使用 ECDSA，在 Taproot 中使用 Schnorr 签名。其他链在包括 ECDSA 和 EdDSA 在内的椭圆曲线签名方案中各自做出选择。如果攻击者能从暴露的公钥推导出私钥，就能生成网络可能接受为有效的签名。 + +| 密码学功能 | 常见示例 | 量子影响 | 实际影响 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 密钥建立与公钥加密 | RSA、ECDH | Shor 算法威胁其底层数学难题 | 此前被截获的加密记录可能变得可读 | +| 数字签名 | RSA 签名、ECDSA、EdDSA | Shor 算法可能使私钥恢复成为可能 | 攻击者可能伪造交易或其他授权 | +| 对称加密 | AES | Grover 算法降低暴力搜索的成本 | 密钥长度和实际攻击成本决定剩余的安全余量 | +| 哈希 | SHA-256、SHA-3 | 量子搜索会降低部分安全余量 | 依赖哈希的功能需要单独评估 | + +因此，比特币的数字签名与 SHA-256 面临不同的量子威胁。 + +ECDSA 负责授权花费。一次成功的 Shor 攻击可能从公钥恢复私钥，从而使伪造交易成为可能。 + +SHA-256 支撑着挖矿和其他依赖哈希的功能。与之相关的量子威胁是 [Grover 算法](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/how-does-grovers-algorithm-work-mathematically-speaking)，它为搜索提供了通用加速。这并未给攻击者提供同样直接的私钥恢复途径。[NIST 的后量子指南](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography/faqs)将这两种攻击模型分开处理。 + +## 量子能力如何演变为区块链攻击 + +![量子能力、公钥暴露和不完整的迁移共同构成了实际的量子风险](/blog/assets/quantum-risk-factors.webp) + +当一台有能力的量子计算机能够在后量子迁移保护相关资产之前，利用已暴露的公钥时，区块链就变得脆弱。 + +### 机器能够完成攻击 + +攻击者需要足够可靠的量子能力，在目标可用的时间内推导出私钥。 + +可用时间取决于目标本身。一个在链上暴露多年的公钥，比一个在交易广播后、确认前才暴露的公钥，能给攻击者多得多的时间来推导对应私钥。 + +### 公钥是可获得的 + +没有对应的公钥，量子计算机无法推导出私钥。 + +一些比特币输出直接记录公钥；另一些最初只存储公钥的哈希，等所有者花费时才暴露完整公钥。重复使用地址可能导致新资金被一个已经暴露过的公钥所"保护"。 + +谷歌 2026 年的分析估计，公钥已暴露或被重复使用的地址中，约有 670 万枚 BTC 可能面临未来 CRQC 对静态资产的攻击。 + +该分析中约有 230 万枚 BTC 至少已闲置五年，另有约 170 万枚 BTC 锁定在早期的 pay-to-public-key 输出中。[谷歌的论文](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf)说明了这些估算背后的假设和方法。 + +一旦 CRQC 能够推导出对应私钥，这些余额就会变得可被攻击。仍掌控自己私钥的持有者，可以在链部署后量子花费路径、且配套钱包与服务已采用该路径后迁移资金。丢失或被弃用的私钥则带来更棘手的问题，因为可能没有人能授权迁移。 + +[比特币的迁移问题同时也是一个协调问题](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/bitcoins-migration-problem-is-self-organization)，因为没有任何中央运营方能够确保每一位持有者、每个钱包、交易所、托管方和节点运营者都完成升级。 + +### 迁移仍不完整 + +在协议中加入后量子签名方案只是迁移的一部分。节点必须强制执行新规则，钱包必须生成并管理新密钥，交易所和托管方必须支持新的交易格式。 + +在用户能够通过已激活且受支持的后量子路径转移资产之前，现有资产仍然脆弱。一项提案、一篇研究论文、一个测试网或一个可选的主网功能，都只能说明有所进展；它们并不能保护由脆弱密钥控制的资产。 + +## 为何迁移要在 Q-Day 之前多年就开始 + +NIST 于 2024 年 8 月确定了首批三项后量子标准： + +- [FIPS 203](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/203/final) 规定了 ML-KEM，一种基于格的共享密钥建立方法。 +- [FIPS 204](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/204/final) 规定了 ML-DSA，一种基于格的数字签名方案。 +- [FIPS 205](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/fips/205/final) 规定了 SLH-DSA，一种基于哈希的数字签名方案。 + +基于格的标准为密钥建立和签名提供了高效的主要选项。基于哈希的标准则为实现者提供了建立在不同数学假设之上的签名选项。 + +我们在 QDay Podcast 中与 Alex Pruden 讨论了 Q-Day、后量子迁移，以及升级脆弱密码学的压力。 + + + +选定算法只是迁移的开始。在普通软件中，新的密码学库或许能通过一次常规更新触达用户，但供应商仍必须改动协议、证书、硬件支持及依赖它的各项服务。 + +NIST 指出，将一种标准化密码算法整合进各类信息系统，[历史上通常需要 10 到 20 年](https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography)。 + +## 各国政府与标准机构正在做什么 + +各国政府已经将后量子迁移当作一项跨越多年的安全计划来对待。 + +| 机构 | 正在进行的准备工作 | +| --- | --- | +| NIST | [NIST](https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/Post-Quantum-Cryptography) 于 2024 年确定了首批 PQC 标准，并计划到 2035 年将易受量子攻击的算法从标准中移除，高风险系统将更早完成迁移 | +| 美国联邦政府 | [第 14412 号行政命令](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/)与 [OMB M-26-15](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/M-26-15-Execution-of-the-Migration-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf) 要求相关高价值、高影响系统在 2030 年 12 月 31 日前完成密钥建立的 PQC 迁移，并在 2031 年 12 月 31 日前完成数字签名的 PQC 迁移 | +| NSA | [CNSA 2.0](https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum-Cybersecurity-Resources/) 确定了抗量子算法，并为 National Security Systems 设定了分阶段过渡方案 | +| 欧盟 | [2025 年欧盟路线图](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/coordinated-implementation-roadmap-transition-post-quantum-cryptography) 呼吁各成员国之间进行协调一致的过渡 | +| ENISA | [ENISA 的整合研究](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/post-quantum-cryptography-integration-study) 探讨了将后量子系统整合进现有协议的问题 | + +这些计划之所以在任何 CRQC 得到确认之前多年就已启动，是因为每一种脆弱算法都必须先被发现、替换、测试并最终淘汰。 + +## 如何评估区块链的量子准备程度 + +一份可信的[迁移计划](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/crypto-state-of-the-union)，会把当前使用的密码学与必须采用其替代方案的人员和系统联系起来。 + +以下五项检查能让这种评估变得可操作。 + +1. **识别正在使用的密码学。** 确定哪些签名方案、密钥建立方法、哈希、证明系统和密码学库正在保护当今的链。 +2. **梳理公钥暴露情况。** 确定密钥何时变得可见、是否被重复使用、攻击窗口保持开放的时间有多长，以及它们控制着哪些资产或权限。 +3. **核实实际已部署的内容。** 区分已发表的研究、提案、测试网、可选的主网功能，以及强制性的主网保护。 +4. **追踪迁移路径。** 检查节点、钱包、交易所、托管方、跨链桥和用户将如何采用替代方案。计划还应说明闲置或无法访问的持仓将如何处理。 +5. **审查证据。** 寻找规范文档、实现代码、独立审计、性能测试以及清晰的用户说明。后量子签名必须在现实条件下于整个环境中正常运作。 + +要评估一项抗量子性声明，需要识别仍在使用的密码学，验证后量子路径是否已激活，并确认现有账户和资产能够使用它。 + +## 检查你的以太坊钱包的量子风险 + +以太坊的外部拥有账户（EOA）与比特币输出的暴露方式不同，因为公钥可以从已发布的交易签名中恢复。 + +以太坊还拥有需要各自独立后量子迁移路径的[共识签名、数据可用性承诺和证明系统](https://www.quantumcanary.org/insights/is-eth-quantum-secure)。 + +[Quantum Risk Checker](https://www.quantus.com/quantum-risk-checker/) 使用公开的区块链数据，评估某个以太坊地址或 ENS 名称的公钥暴露程度和余额敏感性。它绝不会索取私钥。 diff --git a/website/src/i18n/de-DE.json b/website/src/i18n/de-DE.json index 41366e0b..6bc53af0 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/de-DE.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/de-DE.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "Infra", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "Bug-Bounty", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "Migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/en-US.json b/website/src/i18n/en-US.json index 0e625af9..6b81e0ea 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/en-US.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/en-US.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "Infra", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "Bug Bounty", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "Migration", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/es-ES.json b/website/src/i18n/es-ES.json index 99481790..31a58f66 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/es-ES.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/es-ES.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "Infra", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "Recompensa por bugs", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "Migración", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "Recolectar-Ahora-Descifrar-Después" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/hi-IN.json b/website/src/i18n/hi-IN.json index 8da1769b..3445c9de 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/hi-IN.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/hi-IN.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "इन्फ्रा", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "बग बाउंटी", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "माइग्रेशन", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "हार्वेस्ट-नाउ-डिक्रिप्ट-लेटर" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/id-ID.json b/website/src/i18n/id-ID.json index 1495800e..96d40cb7 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/id-ID.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/id-ID.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "Infra", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "Hadiah Bug", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "Migrasi", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/ja-JP.json b/website/src/i18n/ja-JP.json index 4988b5cc..da603672 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/ja-JP.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/ja-JP.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "インフラ", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "バグバウンティ", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "移行", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "ハーベスト・ナウ・デクリプト・レイター" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/ko-KR.json b/website/src/i18n/ko-KR.json index 975d4283..d6472cbc 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/ko-KR.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/ko-KR.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "인프라", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "버그 바운티", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "마이그레이션", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "하베스트-나우-디크립트-레이터" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/ru-RU.json b/website/src/i18n/ru-RU.json index e94cc4f2..7738231e 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/ru-RU.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/ru-RU.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "Инфра", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "Баг-баунти", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "Миграция", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "Собрать-Сейчас-Расшифровать-Потом" } }, "whitepaper": { diff --git a/website/src/i18n/zh-CN.json b/website/src/i18n/zh-CN.json index f590d42b..006e2b6e 100644 --- a/website/src/i18n/zh-CN.json +++ b/website/src/i18n/zh-CN.json @@ -1007,7 +1007,9 @@ "infra": "基建", "immunefi": "Immunefi", "bug-bounty": "漏洞赏金", - "senoti": "Senoti" + "senoti": "Senoti", + "migration": "迁移", + "harvest-now-decrypt-later": "先收集后解密" } }, "whitepaper": {